What an Economic Slowdown Could Mean for the Housing Market

May 6, 2025

Talk about the economy is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. That’s leaving a lot of people wondering what it means for the value of their home – and their buying power.


Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in the housing market during each recession, going all the way back to the 1980s. The facts may surprise you.


A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall


Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because inventory is still so low overall. Even in markets where the number of homes for sale has started to rise this year, inventory is still far below the oversupply of homes that led up to the housing crash.


In fact, according to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

So, don’t assume a recession will lead to a significant drop in home values. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising, just at a more normal pace.


Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions


While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

So, a recession means rates could decline. And while that would help with your buying power, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.


Bottom Line


The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. However, that doesn’t mean you have to worry about what it means for the housing market – or the value of your home. Historical data tells us what usually happens.


If you’re wondering how the current economy is impacting our local market, let’s connect.

July 1, 2025
Multi-generational living is on the rise. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 17% of homebuyers purchase a home to share with parents, adult children, or extended family. That’s the highest share ever recorded by NAR (see graph below) :
June 27, 2025
Are you thinking about buying a home , but not sure if now’s the right time? A lot of people are waiting and wondering what the market’s going to do next. But here’s something only the savviest buyers realize: This summer might actually be the best time to buy in years. Here are three big reasons why. 1. You Have More Negotiating Power  After several years of sellers having all the leverage, things are starting to shift. Check out the graph below. It uses data from Redfin to show that right now, there are more sellers active in the market than buyers:
June 24, 2025
Life can feel a bit unpredictable these days. What’s happening with inflation? The economy? The housing market? But in the middle of all that uncertainty, there’s one thing a lot of people still crave – a place to call their own. Because when everything else feels up in the air, home can be the thing that grounds you. As the experts at 1000WATT put it: “Homeownership isn’t primarily financial anymore. . . Across all demographics, emotional and lifestyle factors consistently outrank wealth-building as motivators.” Here’s what owning a home can mean for you, especially right now. Freedom To Make It Yours When you're a homeowner, you don’t need to ask permission to paint a wall, hang a gallery of your favorite art, or redo the floors. You have the freedom to create a space that reflects who you are, all the way from the light fixtures to the paint colors. Pro Tip: Just be mindful about exterior changes, if you buy a home in a community that has a homeowner’s association (HOA). There may be some approvals you’d need to get for select outdoor changes. More Privacy, More Peace Owning your home can give you a sense of peace you didn’t even realize you were missing. It’s a comfortable place where you feel secure and can relax, enjoy your privacy, and unwind after a long day. Room To Grow Whether it’s starting a family, setting up a home office for your new career, or finally building that home gym in the garage so you can hit your fitness goals, owning gives you the space to live life on your terms. A Stronger Sense of Community When you own, you’re not just passing through, you’re putting down roots. That often leads to stronger ties with your community, more connection to your neighborhood, and a deeper feeling of belonging where you live. That’s very different from the temporary nature of renting. A Feeling of Accomplishment There’s something powerful about getting the keys and walking into your own front door for the first time. It’s more than pride, it’s personal satisfaction. A quiet and meaningful sense of “I did this.” Sure, it’s not always easy for first-time homebuyers right now. The market today requires patience, strategy , and sometimes a little creative problem-solving. But it’s still worth it. As Realtor.com says : “Buying a home is a major commitment, but it’s also incredibly rewarding.” When you get those keys in your hand, when you realize this place is where your life gets to unfold, it clicks. The stress, the waiting, the planning – all of it led you home. Bottom Line There are a lot of things out of your control right now. But building a life in a space that’s truly yours? That’s still possible with the right strategy and expert help from me to buy a home in Granite Bay, Roseville, Rocklin, Loomis, or anywhere in the Sacramento Valley…Let’s talk about how I can help you make it happen. What would it mean for you to finally have a place to call your own?
June 21, 2025
When your house doesn’t sell, it doesn’t just feel frustrating – it feels personal. You put time, money, and emotional energy into this move. You told your friends and family it was happening. And now that your listing has expired without a buyer? You’re left feeling stuck, and maybe even a little embarrassed. And here's what most agents won’t tell you. Over 70% of homeowners who re-list with a different agent sell their house. Re-list with the same agent? That stat drops to only 50%, according to the latest data from REDX . That’s like leaving the fate of your sale to a coin toss. And that’s not good enough. 
June 18, 2025
Selling your house without an agent as a “For Sale by Owner” (FSBO) may be something you’ve considered. But you should know that, in today’s shifting market, more homeowners are deciding that’s just not worth the risk. According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the number of homeowners selling without an agent has hit an all-time low ( see graph below ): 
June 11, 2025
Now that buyers have more options for their move, you need to be a bit more intentional about making sure your house looks its best when you sell. And proper staging can be a great way to do just that. What Is Home Staging?  It’s not about making your house look super trendy or like it belongs in a magazine. It’s about helping it feel welcoming and move-in ready, so it's easy for buyers to picture themselves living there. It’s important to understand there’s a range when it comes to staging. It can include everything from simple tweaks to more extensive setups, depending on your needs and budget. But a little bit of time, effort, and money invested in this process can really make a difference when you sell – especially in today’s market. A study from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows staged homes sell faster and for more money than homes that aren't staged at all (see below):
June 10, 2025
If you’re a first-time homebuyer, you might feel like the odds are stacked against you in today’s market. But there are resources and programs out there that can help – if you know where to look. And one thing that can make homeownership easier to achieve? An FHA home loan. They’re designed to help you overcome some of the biggest financial hurdles in the homebuying process – and that’s why so many first-timers are using them to make their purchase. Whether you’re dreaming of ditching rent , planting roots, or just wanting a place that’s truly yours, an FHA home loan could be the path that gets you there sooner than you think. Buying Your First Home Probably Doesn’t Feel Easy Right Now While the motivation to buy a home is still there for many people, affordability is a real challenge today. According to a survey from 1000WATT, potential first-time buyers say their top two concerns are saving enough for their down payment and making the monthly mortgage payments work at today’s home prices and mortgage rates (see graph below):
June 6, 2025
You’ve probably asked yourself lately: Is it even worth trying to buy a home right now? With high home prices and stubborn mortgage rates, renting can seem like the safer choice right now. Or maybe your only choice. That’s a very real feeling. And perhaps buying today does not feel that it is your best move; it’s not for everyone. You should only buy a home when you’re ready and able to do it, and if the timing is right for you. But here’s the thing you need to know about renting. While it may feel like a safer bet today – and in some areas might even be less expensive month-to-month than owning – it can really cost you more over time. In fact, renting is 100% interest. You are paying somebody else's mortgage, and get no ownership benefits. A recent Bank of America survey found that 70% of aspiring homeowners worry about what long-term renting means for their future. And they’re not wrong. Owning a home may seem way out of reach, but if you make a plan now and steadily work toward it, homeownership comes with serious long-term financial benefits. Homeownership Builds Wealth Over Time Buying a home isn’t just about having a place to live – it’s a step toward building your future wealth. Why? Home prices typically rise over time , which means the longer you wait, the more expensive it is to buy. And even in some markets where home prices are softening today, the overall long-term trend speaks for itself ( see graph below ): 
June 5, 2025
Do you think a brand-new home means a bigger price tag? Think again. Right now, something unique is happening in the housing market. According to the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median price of newly built homes is actually lower than the median price for existing homes (ones that have already been lived in):
May 29, 2025
If you’ve been house hunting lately, you’ve probably felt the sting of today’s mortgage rates. And it’s because of those rates and rising home prices that many homebuyers are starting to explore other types of loans to make the numbers work. And one option that’s gaining popularity? Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). If you remember the crash in 2008, this may bring up some concerns. But don’t worry. Today’s ARMs aren’t the same. Here’s why. Back then, some buyers were given loans they couldn’t afford after the rates adjusted. But now, lenders are more cautious, and they evaluate whether you could still afford the loan if your rate increases. So, don’t assume the return of ARMs means another crash. Right now, it just shows some buyers are looking for creative solutions when affordability is tough. You can see the recent trend in this data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). More people are opting for ARMs right now ( see graph below ): 
Show More
July 1, 2025
Multi-generational living is on the rise. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 17% of homebuyers purchase a home to share with parents, adult children, or extended family. That’s the highest share ever recorded by NAR (see graph below) :
June 27, 2025
Are you thinking about buying a home , but not sure if now’s the right time? A lot of people are waiting and wondering what the market’s going to do next. But here’s something only the savviest buyers realize: This summer might actually be the best time to buy in years. Here are three big reasons why. 1. You Have More Negotiating Power  After several years of sellers having all the leverage, things are starting to shift. Check out the graph below. It uses data from Redfin to show that right now, there are more sellers active in the market than buyers:
June 24, 2025
Life can feel a bit unpredictable these days. What’s happening with inflation? The economy? The housing market? But in the middle of all that uncertainty, there’s one thing a lot of people still crave – a place to call their own. Because when everything else feels up in the air, home can be the thing that grounds you. As the experts at 1000WATT put it: “Homeownership isn’t primarily financial anymore. . . Across all demographics, emotional and lifestyle factors consistently outrank wealth-building as motivators.” Here’s what owning a home can mean for you, especially right now. Freedom To Make It Yours When you're a homeowner, you don’t need to ask permission to paint a wall, hang a gallery of your favorite art, or redo the floors. You have the freedom to create a space that reflects who you are, all the way from the light fixtures to the paint colors. Pro Tip: Just be mindful about exterior changes, if you buy a home in a community that has a homeowner’s association (HOA). There may be some approvals you’d need to get for select outdoor changes. More Privacy, More Peace Owning your home can give you a sense of peace you didn’t even realize you were missing. It’s a comfortable place where you feel secure and can relax, enjoy your privacy, and unwind after a long day. Room To Grow Whether it’s starting a family, setting up a home office for your new career, or finally building that home gym in the garage so you can hit your fitness goals, owning gives you the space to live life on your terms. A Stronger Sense of Community When you own, you’re not just passing through, you’re putting down roots. That often leads to stronger ties with your community, more connection to your neighborhood, and a deeper feeling of belonging where you live. That’s very different from the temporary nature of renting. A Feeling of Accomplishment There’s something powerful about getting the keys and walking into your own front door for the first time. It’s more than pride, it’s personal satisfaction. A quiet and meaningful sense of “I did this.” Sure, it’s not always easy for first-time homebuyers right now. The market today requires patience, strategy , and sometimes a little creative problem-solving. But it’s still worth it. As Realtor.com says : “Buying a home is a major commitment, but it’s also incredibly rewarding.” When you get those keys in your hand, when you realize this place is where your life gets to unfold, it clicks. The stress, the waiting, the planning – all of it led you home. Bottom Line There are a lot of things out of your control right now. But building a life in a space that’s truly yours? That’s still possible with the right strategy and expert help from me to buy a home in Granite Bay, Roseville, Rocklin, Loomis, or anywhere in the Sacramento Valley…Let’s talk about how I can help you make it happen. What would it mean for you to finally have a place to call your own?
June 21, 2025
When your house doesn’t sell, it doesn’t just feel frustrating – it feels personal. You put time, money, and emotional energy into this move. You told your friends and family it was happening. And now that your listing has expired without a buyer? You’re left feeling stuck, and maybe even a little embarrassed. And here's what most agents won’t tell you. Over 70% of homeowners who re-list with a different agent sell their house. Re-list with the same agent? That stat drops to only 50%, according to the latest data from REDX . That’s like leaving the fate of your sale to a coin toss. And that’s not good enough. 
June 18, 2025
Selling your house without an agent as a “For Sale by Owner” (FSBO) may be something you’ve considered. But you should know that, in today’s shifting market, more homeowners are deciding that’s just not worth the risk. According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the number of homeowners selling without an agent has hit an all-time low ( see graph below ): 
June 11, 2025
Now that buyers have more options for their move, you need to be a bit more intentional about making sure your house looks its best when you sell. And proper staging can be a great way to do just that. What Is Home Staging?  It’s not about making your house look super trendy or like it belongs in a magazine. It’s about helping it feel welcoming and move-in ready, so it's easy for buyers to picture themselves living there. It’s important to understand there’s a range when it comes to staging. It can include everything from simple tweaks to more extensive setups, depending on your needs and budget. But a little bit of time, effort, and money invested in this process can really make a difference when you sell – especially in today’s market. A study from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows staged homes sell faster and for more money than homes that aren't staged at all (see below):
June 10, 2025
If you’re a first-time homebuyer, you might feel like the odds are stacked against you in today’s market. But there are resources and programs out there that can help – if you know where to look. And one thing that can make homeownership easier to achieve? An FHA home loan. They’re designed to help you overcome some of the biggest financial hurdles in the homebuying process – and that’s why so many first-timers are using them to make their purchase. Whether you’re dreaming of ditching rent , planting roots, or just wanting a place that’s truly yours, an FHA home loan could be the path that gets you there sooner than you think. Buying Your First Home Probably Doesn’t Feel Easy Right Now While the motivation to buy a home is still there for many people, affordability is a real challenge today. According to a survey from 1000WATT, potential first-time buyers say their top two concerns are saving enough for their down payment and making the monthly mortgage payments work at today’s home prices and mortgage rates (see graph below):
June 6, 2025
You’ve probably asked yourself lately: Is it even worth trying to buy a home right now? With high home prices and stubborn mortgage rates, renting can seem like the safer choice right now. Or maybe your only choice. That’s a very real feeling. And perhaps buying today does not feel that it is your best move; it’s not for everyone. You should only buy a home when you’re ready and able to do it, and if the timing is right for you. But here’s the thing you need to know about renting. While it may feel like a safer bet today – and in some areas might even be less expensive month-to-month than owning – it can really cost you more over time. In fact, renting is 100% interest. You are paying somebody else's mortgage, and get no ownership benefits. A recent Bank of America survey found that 70% of aspiring homeowners worry about what long-term renting means for their future. And they’re not wrong. Owning a home may seem way out of reach, but if you make a plan now and steadily work toward it, homeownership comes with serious long-term financial benefits. Homeownership Builds Wealth Over Time Buying a home isn’t just about having a place to live – it’s a step toward building your future wealth. Why? Home prices typically rise over time , which means the longer you wait, the more expensive it is to buy. And even in some markets where home prices are softening today, the overall long-term trend speaks for itself ( see graph below ): 
June 5, 2025
Do you think a brand-new home means a bigger price tag? Think again. Right now, something unique is happening in the housing market. According to the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median price of newly built homes is actually lower than the median price for existing homes (ones that have already been lived in):
May 29, 2025
If you’ve been house hunting lately, you’ve probably felt the sting of today’s mortgage rates. And it’s because of those rates and rising home prices that many homebuyers are starting to explore other types of loans to make the numbers work. And one option that’s gaining popularity? Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). If you remember the crash in 2008, this may bring up some concerns. But don’t worry. Today’s ARMs aren’t the same. Here’s why. Back then, some buyers were given loans they couldn’t afford after the rates adjusted. But now, lenders are more cautious, and they evaluate whether you could still afford the loan if your rate increases. So, don’t assume the return of ARMs means another crash. Right now, it just shows some buyers are looking for creative solutions when affordability is tough. You can see the recent trend in this data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). More people are opting for ARMs right now ( see graph below ): 
Show More