Why October Is the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2025

You want mortgage rates to fall – and they've started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go? Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here's why. The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield , which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates ( see graph below ):

Want to know something important you probably don’t have a professional check for you nearly as often as you should? Spoiler alert: it’s the value of your home. Because here’s the reality. Your house is likely the biggest financial asset you have. And if you’ve lived in it for a few years or more, chances are it’s been quietly building wealth for you in the background – even if you haven’t been keeping tabs on it. You might be surprised by just how much it’s grown, even as the market has shifted over the past few months. What Is Home Equity? That hidden wealth in your home is called equity . It’s the difference between what your house is worth today and what you still owe on your mortgage. Your equity grows over time as home values rise and as you make your monthly payments. Here’s an example to help you really understand how the math works. Let’s say your house is now worth $500,000, and you have $200,000 left to pay off on your loan. That means you have $300,000 in equity. And that’s right in line with what the typical homeowner has right now. According to Cotality, the average homeowner with a mortgage has about $302,000 in equity. Why You Probably Have More Than You Think Here are the two main reasons homeowners like you have near record amounts of equity right now: 1. Significant Home Price Growth. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices have jumped by nearly 54% nationwide over the last five years (see map below): 

For the past couple of years, it’s been tough for a lot of homebuyers to make the numbers work. Home prices shot up. Mortgage rates too. And a number of people hit pause because it just didn’t feel possible. Maybe you were one of them. But there’s some encouraging news. If you’ve been waiting for a better time to jump back in, affordability may finally be showing signs of improvement this fall. The latest data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment has been coming down, and is now about $290 lower than it was just a few months ago ( see graph below) :

Waiting for the perfect buyer to fall in love with your house? In today’s market, that’s usually not what’s holding things up. And here’s why. Let’s be real. Homes are taking a week longer to sell than they did a year ago. According to Realtor.com : “Homes are also taking longer to sell. The typical home spent 60 days on the market in August, seven days longer than last year and now above pre-pandemic norms for the second consecutive month. This was the 17th straight month of year-over-year increases in time on market.” Part of that is because there are more homes on the market. So, with more options for buyers to choose from, they aren’t getting snatched up quite as fast. But there’s another big reason: price. The Average List Price Isn’t Going Up – and That Matters Today, a lot of homeowners are overshooting their list price. They remember the big climb in home prices a few years ago, and they don’t realize how much has changed. One of the most important, but often overlooked, changes in today’s housing market is this: average list prices have held steady for the past few years. That’s a big shift from a typical market, where prices were rising steadily each year. And it’s significantly different than the 2021-2022 surge when sellers could set their price just about anywhere and still attract multiple offers over asking. But now? That trend has leveled off – and sellers who want to stay competitive need to take note ( see graph below ): 

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) meets this week, and expectations are high that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate. But does that mean mortgage rates will drop? Let’s clear up the confusion. The Fed Doesn’t Directly Set Mortgage Rates Right now, all eyes are on the Fed. Most economists expect they'll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their mid-September meeting to try to head off a potential recession. According to the CME FedWatch Tool , markets are already betting on it. There’s virtually a 100% chance of a September cut. And based on what we know now, there’s about a 92% chance it’ll be a small cut (25 basis points) and an 8% chance it will be a bigger cut (50 basis points):

Even with more homes on the market right now, some buyers are still having a tough time finding the right one at the right price . Maybe the layout feels off. Maybe it still needs some updating. Or maybe it’s just more of the same. That’s why more buyers are turning to new construction – and finding some of the best deals available today. Why? Today, many builders have more homes that are finished and sitting on the market than normal. And that means they’re motivated to sell. They’re running a business, and they don’t want to sit on their inventory. They want to sell it before they build more homes. And that can definitely work in your favor. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub , puts it : “In housing markets where unsold completed inventory has built up, many homebuilders have pulled back on their spec builds— and many are doing bigger incentives or outright price cuts to move unsold inventory .” Incentives Are the Highest They’ve Been in 5 Years Data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) shows 66% of builders offered sales incentives in August . That’s the peak so far this year, and the highest percentage we’ve seen in 5 years.

If your selling strategy still assumes you’ll get multiple offers over asking, it’s officially time for a reset. That frenzied seller’s market is behind us. And here are the numbers to prove it. From Frenzy to “Normal” Right now, about 50% of homes on the market are selling for less than their asking price, according to the latest data from Cotality . But that isn’t necessarily bad news, even if it feels like it. Here’s why. The wild run-up over the last few years was never going to be sustainable. The housing market needed a reset, and data shows that’s exactly what’s happening right now. The graph below uses data from Zillow to show how this trend has shifted over time. Here’s what it tells us: 2018–2019: 50–55% of homes sold under asking. That was the norm. 2021–2022: Only 25% sold under asking, thanks to record-low rates and intense buyer demand. 2025: 50% of homes are selling below asking. That’s much closer to what’s typical in the housing market. 

You may have seen talk online that new home inventory is at its highest level since the crash. And if you lived through the crash back in 2008, seeing new construction is up again may feel a little scary. But here’s what you need to remember: a lot of what you see online is designed to get clicks. So, you may not be getting the full story. A closer look at the data and a little expert insight can change your perspective completely. Why This Isn’t Like 2008 While it’s true the number of new homes on the market hit its highest level since the crash, that’s not a reason to worry. That’s because new builds are just one piece of the puzzle. They don’t tell the full story of what’s happening today. To get the real picture of how much inventory we have and how it compares to the surplus we saw back then, you’ve got to look at both new homes and existing homes (homes that were lived in by a previous owner). When you combine those two numbers , it’s clear overall supply looks very different today than it did around the crash ( see graph below ):

If your house is on the market but you haven’t gotten any offers you’re comfortable with, you may be wondering: what do I do if it doesn’t sell? And for a growing number of homeowners, that’s turning into a new dilemma: should I just rent it instead? There’s a term for this in the industry, and it’s called an accidental landlord . Here’s how Yahoo Finance defines it: “These ‘accidental landlords’ are homeowners who tried to sell but couldn’t fetch the price they wanted — and instead have decided to rent out their homes until conditions improve.” Why This Is Happening More Often Right Now And right now, the number of homeowners turning into accidental landlords is rising. Business Insider explains why: “While there have always been accidental landlords . . . an era of middling home sales brought on by a steep rise in borrowing rates — is minting a new wave of reluctant rental owners." Basically, sales have slowed down as buyers struggle with today’s affordability challenges. And that’s leaving some homeowners with listings that sit and go stale. And if they don't want to drop their price to try to appeal to buyers, they may rent instead. But here’s the thing you need to remember if renting your house has crossed your mind. Becoming a landlord wasn’t your original plan, and there’s probably a reason for that. It comes with a lot more responsibility (and risk) than most people expect. So, if you find yourself toying with that option, ask yourself these questions first: 1. Does Your House Have Potential as a Profitable Rental? Just because you can rent it doesn’t mean you should. For example: Are you moving out of state? Managing maintenance from far away isn’t easy. Does the home need repairs before it’s rental-ready? And do you have the time or the funds for that? Is your neighborhood one that typically attracts renters, and would your house be profitable as one? If any of those give you pause, it’s a sign selling might be the better move. 2. Are You Ready To Be a Landlord? On paper, renting sounds like easy passive income. In reality, it often looks more like this: Midnight calls about clogged toilets or broken air conditioners Chasing down missed rent payments Damage you’ll have to fix between tenants As Redfin notes: “Landlords have to fix things like broken pipes, defunct HVAC systems, and structural damage, among other essential repairs. If you don’t have a few thousand dollars on hand to take care of these repairs, you could end up in a bind.” 3. Have You Thought Through the True Costs? According to Bankrate, here are just a few of the hidden costs that come with renting out your home: A higher insurance premium (landlord insurance typically costs about 25% more) Management fees (if you use a property manager, they typically charge around 10% of the rent) Maintenance and advertising to find tenants Gaps between tenants, where you cover the mortgage without rental income coming in All of that adds up, fast. While renting can be a smart move for the right person with the right house, if you’re only considering it because your listing didn’t get traction, there may be a better solution: talking to your current agent and revisiting the pricing strategy on your house first. With their advice you can rework your strategy, relaunch at the right price, and attract real buyers to make the sale happen. Bottom Line Before you decide to rent your house, make sure to carefully weigh the pros and cons of becoming a landlord. Should you be considering it, I am happy to discuss the process with you and refer you to a property manger I work with on a regular basis here in Granite Bay, Roseville, Rocklin, and Sacramento. Just remember, there is a cost to maintaining a house, and every time a tenant moves out there is a cost involved as well. I am happy to discuss these costs and help you paint a picture of what to expect when you rent the house out and should you decide that it is something you would like to do. Being a landlord is nothing to be taken lightly.