What a Fed Rate Cut Could Mean for Mortgage Rates

A lot of people are asking the same thing right now: “Is it even a good time to sell?” And the truth may come as a bit of a surprise... For many homeowners, the answer is a strong yes . Why? Because of one major factor working in your favor: your equity. Odds are, if you’ve lived in your home for a while, you know you have significant equity. But how much are we really talking about? The number might just change everything about your next move. The Hidden Wealth of Homeownership Here’s how it works. When you own a home, you build up something called equity . Each time you make a mortgage payment, you’re chipping away at your loan balance. And that helps your ownership stake in your home grow. At the same time, home values typically rise – which drives up the overall value of your home. When you put those two things together, you’re building wealth automatically, month after month, year after year. And that combo can add up to real dollars that can make a real difference in your move. That’s especially true if you’ve lived in your house for a while, which many homeowners have. According to Realtor.com : “Nearly half (45.2%) of today’s homeowners have lived in their home for more than 15 years, and 1 in 4 for over 25 years.” If that’s you, just imagine what 15-25 years of payments + steady appreciation have done to your bottom line. It's time you see how your equity stacks up over time. What That Really Means in Dollars This chart uses research coming out of Realtor.com to show an estimate of how much equity homeowners have built up depending on when they bought. For each time frame, it takes the median-priced home and uses it as the baseline example. The numbers are shocking, too. According to the study, if you bought the average-priced home in... The mid-90s? You could be sitting on over $400,000 in equity now. The early 2000s? You could have over $330,000 , even with owning during the housing crash. In 2015? Even in that shorter 10-year time frame, many homeowners have already built nearly $285,000 in equity. 

One of the biggest homebuying advantages you can give yourself today is surprisingly simple: a flexible wish list. Think of it like this. Your wish list and your budget are the guardrails of your search. And when your budget needs to hold firm, there’s another lever you can pull. That’s seeing if you truly need all of your desired features. Because the truth is, a small compromise could be the difference between feeling stuck and getting the keys to your next home. The data shows more buyers are using that strategy to offset affordability hurdles in today’s market. A recent study from Cotality found most buyers (70%) ended up compromising on one or more items from their original wish list. But before they started searching, only 33% expected to compromise at all:

If you’re like a lot of homeowners, you’ve probably thought: “ I’d like to move… but I don’t want to give up my 3% rate. ” That’s fair. That rate has been one of your best financial wins – and it can be hard to let go. But here’s what you need to remember... A great rate won’t make up for a home that no longer works for you. Life changes, and sometimes, your home needs to change with it. And you’re not the only one making that choice. The Lock-In Effect Is Starting To Ease Many homeowners have been frozen in place by something the experts call the lock-in effect. That's when you won't move because you don’t want to take on a higher rate on your next home loan. But data from Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows the lock-in effect is slowly starting to ease for some people. The share of homeowners with a mortgage rate below 3% ( the yellow in the graph below ) is slowly declining as more people move. And while some of the people with a rate over 6% are first-time buyers, the number of homeowners with a rate above 6% (the blue) is rising as others take on higher rates for their next home: 

New home construction today is giving buyers something it feels like they haven't gotten much lately: a real shot at both the home they want and the deal they need. More brand-new options are on the market right now, and builders are rolling out incentives that make these homes more affordable than many people expect. It’s a combination that doesn’t come around often – and it’s putting buyers in a surprisingly strong position this season. Here’s why this moment matters and why it’s worth partnering with your own local agent to take advantage of it. 1. More New Homes Are Available Now – and That May Not Last There’s more new construction on the market today than normal. And for buyers, that means: More cutting-edge communities More move-in-ready homes More floor plans to pick from More upgraded designs and modern features But that variety may not last. Data from Zonda shows that even though it feels like new homes are popping up just about everywhere, builders have actually started pulling back. The number of starts (that’s when builders break ground) has been slowly but steadily declining over the past few years. And that’s good because it prevents overbuilding nationally. But here’s the real insight that can give you an edge. Forecasts show that slight downward trend should continue next year ( see graph below ):

Homebuyers are weighing their options right now, and they certainly have a lot on their minds. With everything going on in the job market, the economy, and more – there's a lot to think about these days. And maybe that’s making you wonder if it really makes sense to buy a home right now. But here’s what many recent buyers would tell you: even with all that, making a move is worth it . And this is why they’re thankful they went ahead and took the plunge already. Life doesn't wait for better market conditions. So, your decision shouldn't be about trying to time the market perfectly. It should be about moving when the time is right for you and what you need – and it’s different for everyone. The Real Reasons People Bought a Home According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), what’s really driving today’s moves is the desire for something better or something different . It’s a personal motivator or a change in what they need out of the home that pushed buyers to act this year ( see chart below ):

Want to know how to find the best deal possible in today’s housing market ? Here’s the secret. Focus on homes that have been sitting on the market for a while. Because when a listing lingers, sellers tend to get more realistic – and, more willing to negotiate. And that’s where the savviest buyers are finding homes other buyers overlook. The Opportunity: 1 in 5 Homes Has Had a Price Cut This Year According to Realtor.com , about 1 in every 5 listings (20.2%) have dropped their asking price at least once. And while so many things in today’s housing market vary by region, that number is consistent throughout the country. That tells you one thing... No matter where you live, there’s a chance to score a better deal. You just need to know where to look. And that’s where your agent comes in. The Tactic: Target Homes That Have Been Sitting the Longest Your agent can help you identify which homes have been on the market the longest. Those are the ones where you’re more likely to get a discount. That’s because the seller may be getting frustrated their house hasn’t sold yet, so they're more willing to play ball. And since a lot of buyers steer clear of homes that aren’t selling, you may be the only offer they get. So, you can lean in and push for a better deal. As Realtor.com explains: “Less competition means fewer bidding wars and more power to negotiate the extras that add up: closing cost credits, home warranties, even repair concessions . . . these concessions can end up knocking thousands of dollars off the price of a home .” And they’re not the only ones calling out the opportunity you have right now. Bankrate also says: “During the quieter fall and winter months, when fewer prospective buyers are shopping, home sellers may be more willing to lower their prices, or offer concessions, to attract those prospective buyers who are still looking. ” And the proof is in the data. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows a clear pattern: the longer a home stays on the market, the lower it tends to sell for compared to the original asking price .

Homebuyers are watching the economy closely, and for good reason. Buying a home is one of the biggest purchases most people ever make. And some recession talk in the media has made a lot of would-be buyers second guess their plans. In the latest LendingTree survey , almost 2 in 3 Americans said they think a recession is coming . And 74% of respondents say that's having an impact on their financial decisions. But here’s the good news: the experts aren’t nearly as concerned. Most Americans Expect a Recession, But Most Experts Don’t According to an October report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), only 1 in 3 experts surveyed say we may be headed for a recession sometime in the next 12 months ( see graph below ):

When the holidays roll around, travel plans, family gatherings, and all the chaos of the season may make you think it’s better to pull your listing off the market or to wait until 2026 to sell your house . But here’s the thing. Waiting could mean missing out on a great window of opportunity. Because while other sellers are stepping away, you can lean in – and that might actually give you the edge. Here are 4 reasons selling now may be the better bet. 1. Buyers This Time of Year Are Serious Don’t let the season fool you. While casual browsers tend to step back around the holidays, serious buyers stay in the game. The people looking for homes right now usually aren’t just browsing. They’re ready to make a move and they usually want to close before the new year. As Zillow says: While more buyers have tended to shop in the spring and summer months, those shopping in the winter are likely to be motivated — often moving because of a job relocation, change in financial situation, or change in family needs.” Their timelines are real and missing them would create a hassle for the buyer, so they’re eager to get the deal done. And that’s exactly the kind of buyer you want to work with. 2. You Have Control Over Your Schedule (and Showings) Some homeowners decide not to sell this time of year because they don’t want to juggle showings during the holiday rush. They’re anticipating traveling to see family and thinking about buyers in their home only adds another layer of complexity. But here’s what no one’s reminded them. You can control your showings and can set times that work for your schedule. You don’t have to stop your plans to keep your sale on track. The right agent can help you manage your calendar, your showings, and your stress level. 3. Other Sellers May Step Back, Which Means Less Competition Because fewer sellers tend to list this time of year, the number of homes for sale usually falls a bit. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS , explains: “As we approach the end of the year, listing activity tends to slow and would-be sellers decide to wait until after the new year to list . . .” And in a year when inventory has been steadily rising, that seasonal slowdown works in your favor. With the potential for fewer sellers on the market, your house will stand out. So, a seasonal dip in listings could help you get noticed , especially if your home is priced right and presented well. 4. Homes Decorated for the Holidays Can Feel More Inviting You may not realize it, but seasonal decor can actually help you appeal to buyers. Maybe it’s that they have an easier time picturing themselves making memories in the home. Maybe it just feels cozier and more inviting. Whatever the reason, it works. Sometimes tasteful seasonal touches can make it easier to sell your house. But don’t go overboard. Keep your choices simple to let your home’s charm shine through. Bottom Line There are plenty of good reasons to put (or keep) your house on the market during this time of year in Granite Bay, Roseville, Sacramento, or anywhere. If you want to talk strategy for how to make the most of this season in our market, let’s connect. 

A lot of buyers are stuck in “wait and see” mode right now. They’re watching rates hover a little above 6% and thinking, I’ll buy once they hit the 5s. Because who doesn’t want a better rate? But here’s the thing: that 5.99% number might not save you as much as you think. Affordability is still a challenge. There’s no question about that. But the market has given savvy buyers a head start. Mortgage rates have already come down over the past few months. And the drop we’ve seen saves you more than you’d think. How Much You’ve Already Saved, Without Realizing It Let's put some real numbers to it. Rates peaked for the year in May when they inched above 7%. But since then, they’ve been slowly declining. Now, they’re sitting in the low 6s. And while that may not sound like a big deal, that change translates to real dollars. According to data coming out of Redfin , the typical monthly payment on a $400,000 home is already down almost $400 since May. That means if you’re buying a home now here in Granite Bay, Roseville, Loomis, or anywhere in the Sacramento valley and beyond, you're saving hundreds of dollars every month compared to what you would have been able to get earlier this spring. That’s real money that makes a real difference for buyers who paused their plans because they thought homeownership was out of reach. And while it may be tempting to wait even longer to see bigger savings, that’s a gamble that could cost you. Here’s why. Where Experts Say Rates Are Headed For starters, most experts say mortgage rates are likely to stay pretty much where we are today throughout 2026. So, there’s no guarantee we’ll see a rate much lower than what we have now. Only one expert forecaster is saying rates could fall into the upper 5s next year ( see graph below ):