Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008

July 15, 2024

Even if you didn't own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider says:


“Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.”


Here’s why experts are so confident. For the market (and home prices) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn't show that’s happening. Right now, there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time – and that’s true even with the inventory growth we’ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources:


  • Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes)
  • New home construction (newly built homes)
  • Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)


And if we look at those three main sources of inventory, you’ll see it’s clear this isn’t like 2008.



Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses


Although the supply of existing (previously owned) homes is up compared to this time last year, it’s still low overall. And while this varies by local market, nationally, the current months’ supply is well below the norm, and even further below what we saw during the crash. The graph below shows this more clearly.


If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), we only have about a third of that available inventory today. 

So, what does this mean? There just aren't enough homes available to make values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that's not the case right now.


New Home Construction


People are also talking a lot about what's going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. Even though new homes make up a larger percentage of the total inventory than the norm, there’s no need for alarm. Here’s why.


The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. The orange on the graph shows the overbuilding that happened in the lead-up to the crash. And, if you look at the red in the graph, you’ll see that builders have been underbuilding pretty consistently since then: 



There’s just too much of a gap to make up. Builders aren’t overbuilding today, they’re catching up. A recent article from Bankrate says:


“What’s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they’ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.”


Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)


The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. During the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.


Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show how things have changed since the housing crash: 


This graph makes it clear that as lending standards got tighter and buyers became more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures (shown in black) and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw when the market crashed.


While you may see headlines that foreclosure volume is ticking up – remember, that’s only compared to recent years when very few foreclosures happened. We’re still below the normal level we’d see in a typical year.



What This Means for You


Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. As Forbes explains:


“As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.”


Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, points to the laws of supply and demand as a reason why we aren't headed for a crash:


“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”


And Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:


“We will not have a repeat of the 2008–2012 housing market crash. There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.”



Bottom Line


The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing experts and inventory data tell us there isn’t a crash on the horizon.

Why Buyers Shouldn't Overlook a Fall Move

September 12, 2026
You've been waiting for something to change before you buy. It just might not be the thing you expected… While everyone’s paying attention to mortgage rates , only the savviest buyers know that the changing season can start tipping things in their favor. Because every fall, buyers tend to get more to choose from, better prices, and more room to negotiate. And that’s why Hannah Jones, Senior Economist at Realtor.com , says : “ We always see that the best time to buy window usually falls in the early fall around October. ” And that’s exactly why, if you've been waiting for a better moment to buy, this season may be worth a closer look – even with rates where they are. 1. There Are More Homes To Choose From One of the biggest frustrations buyers have had over the past few years has been a lack of choices. Fall tends to help with that. Based on seasonal trends, Realtor.com data shows there are typically more homes available for sale in September through November than during any other season of the year ( see graph below ): 

Remote Work Could Be Your Affordability Answer

September 10, 2026
For most first-time buyers, the hardest part of buying a home is making the numbers work . You budget, you save, and the finish line still feels far away. But your salary is only half the equation. Where you live shapes what you can afford just as much. And if you can work remotely, you have an advantage a lot of buyers don't. You're not tied to living where the jobs are, so you can look where your money goes further. Where You Work Doesn’t Have To Dictate Where You Live Remote job openings are on the rise. According to FlexJobs, remote job postings climbed 22% from the quarter before. That’s the second quarter in a row of double-digit growth. More remote roles mean more people can choose a home base around the life they want to build. As Forbes puts it : “ Remote employees, freelancers, consultants, entrepreneurs, and business owners have the flexibility to choose a home base based on the life they want to build, whether that means more space, a lower cost of living, better access to nature, or simply somewhere new." And you can use that freedom to look somewhere more affordable . Your Paycheck Goes Much Further in Some States Your cost of living – what you spend on housing, groceries, utilities, and the rest of daily life – varies a lot from one state to the next. In some, according to data from Extra Space, it runs far enough below the national average to change what you can afford ( see map below ):

Sellers Are Cutting Prices To Meet Buyers Where They're At

September 5, 2026
You're scrolling through listings on your phone and everything looks good until you see the price (or the estimated monthly payment). Then you close the app. Because even if you love the house, the numbers feel impossible. But here's the thing, they may not be. Nationally, there are more homes sitting on the market than there are people out there looking. And when sellers need buyers more than buyers need sellers , that shows up in the price. Lower asking prices. More price cuts. And homes priced for what buyers can actually afford – not what sellers hope someone might pay. And it may be enough to make buying more doable than you’d think. 4 Out of 10 Sellers Are Cutting Their Price One of the clearest signs sellers are adjusting? Price cuts. HousingWire Data shows more than 40% of sellers are dropping this price. That’s just slightly behind the volume we saw last year ( see graph below ): 

Thinking About Tapping into Your 401(k) To Buy a Home? Read This First.

September 3, 2026
Lately, headlines have floated an eye-catching idea about tapping into your 401(k) to cover a down payment on a home. Maybe you've caught the buzz and wondered whether that money could get you into a home faster, especially with affordability as tough as it is. Here’s what you need to remember. Pulling from your retirement savings is a big decision, so take time to weigh all your options first and be sure to talk with a financial expert before you do anything. A lot of buyers ask if they can use retirement money for a down payment. The short answer is: sometimes. The better answer is: there are a few different ways to do it, and they are not all the same. 1. 401(k) loan (borrowing from yourself) If your employer plan allows it, this is usually the cleanest option. You borrow from your own 401(k), typically up to 50% of your vested balance or $50,000, whichever is less. There is generally no income tax and no 10% penalty as long as you repay it on schedule. The interest you pay goes back into your own account. Two things to watch: If you leave your job before the loan is paid off, the remaining balance can become taxable. Some plans allow a longer payoff period when the loan is used to buy a primary residence. 2. 401(k) hardship withdrawal Some plans allow a withdrawal for costs tied to buying a principal residence. This is not a loan. You do not pay it back. You will usually owe income tax, and if you’re under 59½ the 10% penalty often still applies. There is no special first-time homebuyer penalty exception for 401(k)s. 3. IRA first-time homebuyer exception IRAs work differently. You generally cannot take a loan from an IRA, but first-time buyers (no principal residence in the last two years) may withdraw up to $10,000 penalty-free. A married couple can often use $10,000 each. Traditional IRA withdrawals are still taxable. Roth IRA contributions can usually come out tax- and penalty-free; earnings have extra rules Why Dipping into a 401(k) Can Be Tempting Data from Empower shows many Americans have built up considerable retirement savings. The median 401(k) amount for anyone in their 40s-60s is six figures (see graph below  ):

One Number Could Change Everything About Your Next Move

August 29, 2026
When's the last time someone told you what your house is worth? Not what some online valuation tool guessed. Not what your neighbor's house sold for. What yours is actually worth right now . For a lot of homeowners, it's been years. And if you've been thinking about moving , but higher home prices or mortgage rates have made you hesitate, here’s why it’s time to take a second look at that number. Your House May Be Worth More Than You Think Home values have climbed significantly over the past 5-10 years. And even though today's market is more balanced , homeowners are building wealth every day just by owning their homes. That’s how equity works. As home values rise, and as you make your monthly payments, your equity grows. And it adds up fast. According to Cotality , the typical homeowner with a mortgage now has $310,500 in equity. That's not a small number. It’s six figures. And that’s only the national average. In many states, homeowners have built even more equity than that. Take a look at the map below and see where your state stands. The darker the blue, the more equity the typical homeowner has there (see map below): 

Most Home Sales Close – Here’s How To Keep Yours on Track

August 26, 2026
Few things are as rattling as the thought of your home sale falling through at the last minute, right before closing. All that waiting, all that progress, out the window. But if you’re getting ready to sell, here’s what you should know. Even in today’s market, it rarely comes to that. Buyers who are moving at today’s rates and prices are generally moving because of some big life change. That means they’re motivated, and eager to get all the way to the closing table. According to the latest data from Redfin , only about 1 in 7 pending sales are falling through . Meaning the vast majority make it all the way to closing. And the single biggest thing that puts a deal at risk is the one you have the most power to prevent. It just takes a little smart planning before your house hits the market. Why Some Deals Fall Apart Before Closing A Redfin survey sheds light on the most common things that trip up a sale ( see visual below ):

Who Has the Upper Hand in Today's Housing Market?

August 22, 2026
Ask around and almost every homebuyer out there wants to know if there’s a way to get a better deal . And just about every seller wants to know if they'll still get top dollar . The interesting thing is... both can be right at the exact same time . It just depends on where you live. That's because today's housing market isn't moving in one direction anymore. Some markets clearly favor buyers. Others still favor sellers. But most are sitting somewhere in the middle. And knowing which market you're actually in can completely change the strategy you use to buy or sell (and what expectations you should have). Let’s break it down. One Number Tells You Who's Got Leverage So how do you know which market you're in? There's one number that tells the story faster than anything else: the months' supply of homes for sale. It's the clearest signal of who's got leverage – and what strategy you'll need. Think of it like this. Imagine no additional homes were listed starting today. Months' supply tells us how long it would take to sell everything that's currently on the market based on today’s demand. Generally speaking, if months’ supply is: Fewer than 4 months: Sellers usually have the advantage. 4 to 6 months: Buyers and sellers are on more equal footing. More than 6 months: Buyers can usually negotiate for a better deal. Right now, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) data says that number is 4.6 and that puts the overall market back in balanced territory ( see graph below ):

The Kind of House Buyers Are Willing To Pay More For

August 20, 2026
That spare room on the main floor. The finished basement with a kitchenette and its own entrance. The bonus room you've been using for storage. To you, it's extra space. But to a growing pool of buyers, it's the reason they'd pick your house . Here’s why. Multi-generational homebuying is on the rise. Millions of Families Are Living Multi-Generationally The number of multi-generational households is climbing. That’s when 3 or more generations live under one roof. And data shows those households grew from 3.2 million to almost 4 million between 2014 and 2024, according to Realtor.com . And each year, more people are shopping for a larger home that fits their combined needs. While the appetite for this type of house is rising across the board, data from USAFacts shows multi-generational living is more common in some states than others. The darker the state in the map below, the more common it is in that area ( see map below ): 

Thinking About Waiting for Lower Mortgage Rates? Read This First.

August 15, 2026
Imagine waiting a year to buy a home, only to find mortgage rates haven't changed much. That may sound frustrating.But it's a real possibility. A lot of people are putting their plans on hold because they believe much lower mortgage rates are right around the corner. But, based on today's forecasts, that may not happen. And you should know that before you decide what to do. Let's look at why experts don't expect a dramatic drop in rates – and the options that could help you buy anyway. Because even if rates don’t fall, you can still move. Here’s how. 1. Mortgage Rates Aren’t Expected To Fall in a Meaningful Way If you're waiting for rates to fall, you're not alone. A recent survey from Clever-Best Interest found 42% of people believe mortgage rates will drop below 5% this year. The challenge is, that's not what the experts who study mortgage rates every day are expecting. Forecasts from Fannie Mae , the Mortgage Bankers Association , and Wells Fargo all show mortgage rates staying relatively steady in the low-to-mid 6% range through at least mid-2027 ( see graph below ):

The Case for Putting 20% Down on Your Next Home

August 12, 2026
If you’re planning to buy your next home soon, you’ve probably heard the old rule about saving 20% for your down payment. The truth is, you usually don’t have to. Plenty of loan options let qualified buyers put down much less. But a lot of repeat buyers are choosing to put down 20% anyway. So, why are they if they don’t have to? Two reasons. They know a bigger down payment pays off, and after years in their current house, they’ve built up enough equity that it’s finally possible. Repeat Buyers Put More Money Down According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the typical repeat buyer puts down 23% when they buy a home ( see graph below ):
Show More

Why Buyers Shouldn't Overlook a Fall Move

September 12, 2026
You've been waiting for something to change before you buy. It just might not be the thing you expected… While everyone’s paying attention to mortgage rates , only the savviest buyers know that the changing season can start tipping things in their favor. Because every fall, buyers tend to get more to choose from, better prices, and more room to negotiate. And that’s why Hannah Jones, Senior Economist at Realtor.com , says : “ We always see that the best time to buy window usually falls in the early fall around October. ” And that’s exactly why, if you've been waiting for a better moment to buy, this season may be worth a closer look – even with rates where they are. 1. There Are More Homes To Choose From One of the biggest frustrations buyers have had over the past few years has been a lack of choices. Fall tends to help with that. Based on seasonal trends, Realtor.com data shows there are typically more homes available for sale in September through November than during any other season of the year ( see graph below ): 

Remote Work Could Be Your Affordability Answer

September 10, 2026
For most first-time buyers, the hardest part of buying a home is making the numbers work . You budget, you save, and the finish line still feels far away. But your salary is only half the equation. Where you live shapes what you can afford just as much. And if you can work remotely, you have an advantage a lot of buyers don't. You're not tied to living where the jobs are, so you can look where your money goes further. Where You Work Doesn’t Have To Dictate Where You Live Remote job openings are on the rise. According to FlexJobs, remote job postings climbed 22% from the quarter before. That’s the second quarter in a row of double-digit growth. More remote roles mean more people can choose a home base around the life they want to build. As Forbes puts it : “ Remote employees, freelancers, consultants, entrepreneurs, and business owners have the flexibility to choose a home base based on the life they want to build, whether that means more space, a lower cost of living, better access to nature, or simply somewhere new." And you can use that freedom to look somewhere more affordable . Your Paycheck Goes Much Further in Some States Your cost of living – what you spend on housing, groceries, utilities, and the rest of daily life – varies a lot from one state to the next. In some, according to data from Extra Space, it runs far enough below the national average to change what you can afford ( see map below ):

Sellers Are Cutting Prices To Meet Buyers Where They're At

September 5, 2026
You're scrolling through listings on your phone and everything looks good until you see the price (or the estimated monthly payment). Then you close the app. Because even if you love the house, the numbers feel impossible. But here's the thing, they may not be. Nationally, there are more homes sitting on the market than there are people out there looking. And when sellers need buyers more than buyers need sellers , that shows up in the price. Lower asking prices. More price cuts. And homes priced for what buyers can actually afford – not what sellers hope someone might pay. And it may be enough to make buying more doable than you’d think. 4 Out of 10 Sellers Are Cutting Their Price One of the clearest signs sellers are adjusting? Price cuts. HousingWire Data shows more than 40% of sellers are dropping this price. That’s just slightly behind the volume we saw last year ( see graph below ): 

Thinking About Tapping into Your 401(k) To Buy a Home? Read This First.

September 3, 2026
Lately, headlines have floated an eye-catching idea about tapping into your 401(k) to cover a down payment on a home. Maybe you've caught the buzz and wondered whether that money could get you into a home faster, especially with affordability as tough as it is. Here’s what you need to remember. Pulling from your retirement savings is a big decision, so take time to weigh all your options first and be sure to talk with a financial expert before you do anything. A lot of buyers ask if they can use retirement money for a down payment. The short answer is: sometimes. The better answer is: there are a few different ways to do it, and they are not all the same. 1. 401(k) loan (borrowing from yourself) If your employer plan allows it, this is usually the cleanest option. You borrow from your own 401(k), typically up to 50% of your vested balance or $50,000, whichever is less. There is generally no income tax and no 10% penalty as long as you repay it on schedule. The interest you pay goes back into your own account. Two things to watch: If you leave your job before the loan is paid off, the remaining balance can become taxable. Some plans allow a longer payoff period when the loan is used to buy a primary residence. 2. 401(k) hardship withdrawal Some plans allow a withdrawal for costs tied to buying a principal residence. This is not a loan. You do not pay it back. You will usually owe income tax, and if you’re under 59½ the 10% penalty often still applies. There is no special first-time homebuyer penalty exception for 401(k)s. 3. IRA first-time homebuyer exception IRAs work differently. You generally cannot take a loan from an IRA, but first-time buyers (no principal residence in the last two years) may withdraw up to $10,000 penalty-free. A married couple can often use $10,000 each. Traditional IRA withdrawals are still taxable. Roth IRA contributions can usually come out tax- and penalty-free; earnings have extra rules Why Dipping into a 401(k) Can Be Tempting Data from Empower shows many Americans have built up considerable retirement savings. The median 401(k) amount for anyone in their 40s-60s is six figures (see graph below  ):

One Number Could Change Everything About Your Next Move

August 29, 2026
When's the last time someone told you what your house is worth? Not what some online valuation tool guessed. Not what your neighbor's house sold for. What yours is actually worth right now . For a lot of homeowners, it's been years. And if you've been thinking about moving , but higher home prices or mortgage rates have made you hesitate, here’s why it’s time to take a second look at that number. Your House May Be Worth More Than You Think Home values have climbed significantly over the past 5-10 years. And even though today's market is more balanced , homeowners are building wealth every day just by owning their homes. That’s how equity works. As home values rise, and as you make your monthly payments, your equity grows. And it adds up fast. According to Cotality , the typical homeowner with a mortgage now has $310,500 in equity. That's not a small number. It’s six figures. And that’s only the national average. In many states, homeowners have built even more equity than that. Take a look at the map below and see where your state stands. The darker the blue, the more equity the typical homeowner has there (see map below): 

Most Home Sales Close – Here’s How To Keep Yours on Track

August 26, 2026
Few things are as rattling as the thought of your home sale falling through at the last minute, right before closing. All that waiting, all that progress, out the window. But if you’re getting ready to sell, here’s what you should know. Even in today’s market, it rarely comes to that. Buyers who are moving at today’s rates and prices are generally moving because of some big life change. That means they’re motivated, and eager to get all the way to the closing table. According to the latest data from Redfin , only about 1 in 7 pending sales are falling through . Meaning the vast majority make it all the way to closing. And the single biggest thing that puts a deal at risk is the one you have the most power to prevent. It just takes a little smart planning before your house hits the market. Why Some Deals Fall Apart Before Closing A Redfin survey sheds light on the most common things that trip up a sale ( see visual below ):

Who Has the Upper Hand in Today's Housing Market?

August 22, 2026
Ask around and almost every homebuyer out there wants to know if there’s a way to get a better deal . And just about every seller wants to know if they'll still get top dollar . The interesting thing is... both can be right at the exact same time . It just depends on where you live. That's because today's housing market isn't moving in one direction anymore. Some markets clearly favor buyers. Others still favor sellers. But most are sitting somewhere in the middle. And knowing which market you're actually in can completely change the strategy you use to buy or sell (and what expectations you should have). Let’s break it down. One Number Tells You Who's Got Leverage So how do you know which market you're in? There's one number that tells the story faster than anything else: the months' supply of homes for sale. It's the clearest signal of who's got leverage – and what strategy you'll need. Think of it like this. Imagine no additional homes were listed starting today. Months' supply tells us how long it would take to sell everything that's currently on the market based on today’s demand. Generally speaking, if months’ supply is: Fewer than 4 months: Sellers usually have the advantage. 4 to 6 months: Buyers and sellers are on more equal footing. More than 6 months: Buyers can usually negotiate for a better deal. Right now, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) data says that number is 4.6 and that puts the overall market back in balanced territory ( see graph below ):

The Kind of House Buyers Are Willing To Pay More For

August 20, 2026
That spare room on the main floor. The finished basement with a kitchenette and its own entrance. The bonus room you've been using for storage. To you, it's extra space. But to a growing pool of buyers, it's the reason they'd pick your house . Here’s why. Multi-generational homebuying is on the rise. Millions of Families Are Living Multi-Generationally The number of multi-generational households is climbing. That’s when 3 or more generations live under one roof. And data shows those households grew from 3.2 million to almost 4 million between 2014 and 2024, according to Realtor.com . And each year, more people are shopping for a larger home that fits their combined needs. While the appetite for this type of house is rising across the board, data from USAFacts shows multi-generational living is more common in some states than others. The darker the state in the map below, the more common it is in that area ( see map below ): 

Thinking About Waiting for Lower Mortgage Rates? Read This First.

August 15, 2026
Imagine waiting a year to buy a home, only to find mortgage rates haven't changed much. That may sound frustrating.But it's a real possibility. A lot of people are putting their plans on hold because they believe much lower mortgage rates are right around the corner. But, based on today's forecasts, that may not happen. And you should know that before you decide what to do. Let's look at why experts don't expect a dramatic drop in rates – and the options that could help you buy anyway. Because even if rates don’t fall, you can still move. Here’s how. 1. Mortgage Rates Aren’t Expected To Fall in a Meaningful Way If you're waiting for rates to fall, you're not alone. A recent survey from Clever-Best Interest found 42% of people believe mortgage rates will drop below 5% this year. The challenge is, that's not what the experts who study mortgage rates every day are expecting. Forecasts from Fannie Mae , the Mortgage Bankers Association , and Wells Fargo all show mortgage rates staying relatively steady in the low-to-mid 6% range through at least mid-2027 ( see graph below ):

The Case for Putting 20% Down on Your Next Home

August 12, 2026
If you’re planning to buy your next home soon, you’ve probably heard the old rule about saving 20% for your down payment. The truth is, you usually don’t have to. Plenty of loan options let qualified buyers put down much less. But a lot of repeat buyers are choosing to put down 20% anyway. So, why are they if they don’t have to? Two reasons. They know a bigger down payment pays off, and after years in their current house, they’ve built up enough equity that it’s finally possible. Repeat Buyers Put More Money Down According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the typical repeat buyer puts down 23% when they buy a home ( see graph below ):
Show More