Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008

Even with more homes on the market right now, some buyers are still having a tough time finding the right one at the right price . Maybe the layout feels off. Maybe it still needs some updating. Or maybe it’s just more of the same. That’s why more buyers are turning to new construction – and finding some of the best deals available today. Why? Today, many builders have more homes that are finished and sitting on the market than normal. And that means they’re motivated to sell. They’re running a business, and they don’t want to sit on their inventory. They want to sell it before they build more homes. And that can definitely work in your favor. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub , puts it : “In housing markets where unsold completed inventory has built up, many homebuilders have pulled back on their spec builds— and many are doing bigger incentives or outright price cuts to move unsold inventory .” Incentives Are the Highest They’ve Been in 5 Years Data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) shows 66% of builders offered sales incentives in August . That’s the peak so far this year, and the highest percentage we’ve seen in 5 years.

If your selling strategy still assumes you’ll get multiple offers over asking, it’s officially time for a reset. That frenzied seller’s market is behind us. And here are the numbers to prove it. From Frenzy to “Normal” Right now, about 50% of homes on the market are selling for less than their asking price, according to the latest data from Cotality . But that isn’t necessarily bad news, even if it feels like it. Here’s why. The wild run-up over the last few years was never going to be sustainable. The housing market needed a reset, and data shows that’s exactly what’s happening right now. The graph below uses data from Zillow to show how this trend has shifted over time. Here’s what it tells us: 2018–2019: 50–55% of homes sold under asking. That was the norm. 2021–2022: Only 25% sold under asking, thanks to record-low rates and intense buyer demand. 2025: 50% of homes are selling below asking. That’s much closer to what’s typical in the housing market. 

You may have seen talk online that new home inventory is at its highest level since the crash. And if you lived through the crash back in 2008, seeing new construction is up again may feel a little scary. But here’s what you need to remember: a lot of what you see online is designed to get clicks. So, you may not be getting the full story. A closer look at the data and a little expert insight can change your perspective completely. Why This Isn’t Like 2008 While it’s true the number of new homes on the market hit its highest level since the crash, that’s not a reason to worry. That’s because new builds are just one piece of the puzzle. They don’t tell the full story of what’s happening today. To get the real picture of how much inventory we have and how it compares to the surplus we saw back then, you’ve got to look at both new homes and existing homes (homes that were lived in by a previous owner). When you combine those two numbers , it’s clear overall supply looks very different today than it did around the crash ( see graph below ):

If your house is on the market but you haven’t gotten any offers you’re comfortable with, you may be wondering: what do I do if it doesn’t sell? And for a growing number of homeowners, that’s turning into a new dilemma: should I just rent it instead? There’s a term for this in the industry, and it’s called an accidental landlord . Here’s how Yahoo Finance defines it: “These ‘accidental landlords’ are homeowners who tried to sell but couldn’t fetch the price they wanted — and instead have decided to rent out their homes until conditions improve.” Why This Is Happening More Often Right Now And right now, the number of homeowners turning into accidental landlords is rising. Business Insider explains why: “While there have always been accidental landlords . . . an era of middling home sales brought on by a steep rise in borrowing rates — is minting a new wave of reluctant rental owners." Basically, sales have slowed down as buyers struggle with today’s affordability challenges. And that’s leaving some homeowners with listings that sit and go stale. And if they don't want to drop their price to try to appeal to buyers, they may rent instead. But here’s the thing you need to remember if renting your house has crossed your mind. Becoming a landlord wasn’t your original plan, and there’s probably a reason for that. It comes with a lot more responsibility (and risk) than most people expect. So, if you find yourself toying with that option, ask yourself these questions first: 1. Does Your House Have Potential as a Profitable Rental? Just because you can rent it doesn’t mean you should. For example: Are you moving out of state? Managing maintenance from far away isn’t easy. Does the home need repairs before it’s rental-ready? And do you have the time or the funds for that? Is your neighborhood one that typically attracts renters, and would your house be profitable as one? If any of those give you pause, it’s a sign selling might be the better move. 2. Are You Ready To Be a Landlord? On paper, renting sounds like easy passive income. In reality, it often looks more like this: Midnight calls about clogged toilets or broken air conditioners Chasing down missed rent payments Damage you’ll have to fix between tenants As Redfin notes: “Landlords have to fix things like broken pipes, defunct HVAC systems, and structural damage, among other essential repairs. If you don’t have a few thousand dollars on hand to take care of these repairs, you could end up in a bind.” 3. Have You Thought Through the True Costs? According to Bankrate, here are just a few of the hidden costs that come with renting out your home: A higher insurance premium (landlord insurance typically costs about 25% more) Management fees (if you use a property manager, they typically charge around 10% of the rent) Maintenance and advertising to find tenants Gaps between tenants, where you cover the mortgage without rental income coming in All of that adds up, fast. While renting can be a smart move for the right person with the right house, if you’re only considering it because your listing didn’t get traction, there may be a better solution: talking to your current agent and revisiting the pricing strategy on your house first. With their advice you can rework your strategy, relaunch at the right price, and attract real buyers to make the sale happen. Bottom Line Before you decide to rent your house, make sure to carefully weigh the pros and cons of becoming a landlord. Should you be considering it, I am happy to discuss the process with you and refer you to a property manger I work with on a regular basis here in Granite Bay, Roseville, Rocklin, and Sacramento. Just remember, there is a cost to maintaining a house, and every time a tenant moves out there is a cost involved as well. I am happy to discuss these costs and help you paint a picture of what to expect when you rent the house out and should you decide that it is something you would like to do. Being a landlord is nothing to be taken lightly.

If you tried to buy a home a few years ago, you probably still remember the frenzy. Homes were listed one day and gone the next. Sometimes it only took hours. You had to drop everything to go and see the house, and if you hesitated even slightly, someone else swooped in and bought it – sometimes even sight unseen. That kind of intensity pushed a lot of buyers to the sidelines. It was stressful, chaotic, and for many, really discouraging. But here’s what you need to know: those days are behind us. Today’s market is moving slower, in the best possible way. And that’s creating more opportunity for buyers who felt shut out in recent years. The Stat That Changes Everything According to the latest data , homes are spending an average of 58 days on the market . That’s much more normal. And it’s a big improvement compared to the height of the pandemic, when homes were flying off the shelves in a matter of days ( see graph below ):

If you’re still worried about having to deal with a bidding war when you buy a home, you may be able to let some of that fear go. While multiple-offer situations haven’t disappeared entirely, they’re not nearly as common as they used to be. In fact, a r ecent survey shows agents reported only 1 in 5 homes (20%) nationally received multiple offers in June 2025 . That’s down from nearly 1 in 3 (31%) just a year ago – and dramatically lower than in June 2023 (39%) ( see graph below ):

Mortgage rates are still a hot topic – and for good reason. After the most recent jobs report came out weaker than expected, the bond market reacted almost instantly. And, as a result, in early August mortgage rates dropped to their lowest point so far this year ( 6.55% ). While that may not sound like a big deal, pretty much every buyer has been waiting for rates to fall. And even a seemingly small drop like this reignites the hope we’re finally going to see rates trending down. But what’s realistic to expect? According to the latest forecasts , rates aren’t expected to fall dramatically anytime soon. Most experts project they’ll stay somewhere in the mid-to-low 6% range through 2026 ( see graph below ): 

My job as your Realtor is not to just get an acceptable offer, or to negotiate the best deal… My job as your Reaktor is to do what I mentioned above and get the deal through escrow and closed! When you sell a house , the last thing you want is for the deal to fall apart right before closing. According to the latest data from Redfin , that’s happening a bit more often lately. The good news is, it’s completely avoidable if you lean on an agent like me for insight into why that is and how to avoid it happening to you. This June, 15% of pending home sales fell through . That means those buyers backed out of their contracts. That’s not too much higher than the norm of roughly 12% from 2017-2019, but it’s still an increase. And it’s one you don’t want to have to deal with. The key to avoiding this headache is knowing what’s causing the issues that lead to a buyer walking away. A recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) finds that agents reported the #1 reason deals are falling apart today is stemming from the home inspection ( see graph below ):

Cutting out the agent might seem like a smart way to save when you sell your house. But here’s the hard truth. Last year, homes that sold with an agent went for almost 15% more than those that sold without one.