Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008

July 15, 2024

Even if you didn't own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider says:


“Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.”


Here’s why experts are so confident. For the market (and home prices) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn't show that’s happening. Right now, there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time – and that’s true even with the inventory growth we’ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources:


  • Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes)
  • New home construction (newly built homes)
  • Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)


And if we look at those three main sources of inventory, you’ll see it’s clear this isn’t like 2008.



Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses


Although the supply of existing (previously owned) homes is up compared to this time last year, it’s still low overall. And while this varies by local market, nationally, the current months’ supply is well below the norm, and even further below what we saw during the crash. The graph below shows this more clearly.


If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), we only have about a third of that available inventory today. 

So, what does this mean? There just aren't enough homes available to make values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that's not the case right now.


New Home Construction


People are also talking a lot about what's going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. Even though new homes make up a larger percentage of the total inventory than the norm, there’s no need for alarm. Here’s why.


The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. The orange on the graph shows the overbuilding that happened in the lead-up to the crash. And, if you look at the red in the graph, you’ll see that builders have been underbuilding pretty consistently since then: 



There’s just too much of a gap to make up. Builders aren’t overbuilding today, they’re catching up. A recent article from Bankrate says:


“What’s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they’ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.”


Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)


The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. During the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.


Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show how things have changed since the housing crash: 


This graph makes it clear that as lending standards got tighter and buyers became more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures (shown in black) and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw when the market crashed.


While you may see headlines that foreclosure volume is ticking up – remember, that’s only compared to recent years when very few foreclosures happened. We’re still below the normal level we’d see in a typical year.



What This Means for You


Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. As Forbes explains:


“As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.”


Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, points to the laws of supply and demand as a reason why we aren't headed for a crash:


“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”


And Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:


“We will not have a repeat of the 2008–2012 housing market crash. There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.”



Bottom Line


The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing experts and inventory data tell us there isn’t a crash on the horizon.

Selling a Luxury House? Here’s Why Now Is a Good Time

July 28, 2026
If you own a luxury house, you're in a stronger spot than most sellers right now. While much of the market has cooled, the high-end tier hasn't. Sale prices and buyer demand are both up. So if you're considering selling, now could be a great time to make your move. Luxury Is Leading on Price Let’s start with prices . But before we get into it – what actually counts as a luxury home? Generally, these are homes in the top 5% price range for the area, so it varies depending on where you live, and what part of the country. But what’s interesting is that according to the latest data from Redfin , sale prices for luxury houses have risen about three times faster than for non-luxury. Right now, the typical home’s sale price is up about 1.5% year-over-year. But high-end homes? Their sale prices have gone up nearly 5% since last year ( see graph below ): 

14 Years Running: Why Real Estate Is Still America’s Favorite Investment

July 25, 2026
Quick gut reaction. Which investment do Americans trust more than stocks, gold, savings accounts, and bonds? The answer hasn't changed in 14 years. It's real estate. And this year, that answer comes with even more conviction behind it. New data shows people aren't just saying homeownership is a smart move, they're feeling better about it than they have in years. Let's dig into why. Real Estate Takes the Top Spot – Again Every year, Gallup asks Americans to name the best long-term investment. And for the 14th year in a row, real estate came out on top ( see graph below ):

More Homes, Better Prices: A Buyer’s Summer

July 21, 2026
If you’ve thought about buying a home in the past few years, you may have run into two frustrations: asking prices that kept climbing and too few homes to choose from. In many places, both sticking points are letting up this summer, with lower asking prices and more homes for sale. Let’s look at the trends, and what they mean for your search. Sellers Are Pricing To Attract Buyers According to Realtor.com , the national median asking price was $430,000 in June, nearly $11,000 under what it was the year before ( see graph below ):

Down Payments Are Smaller Than They’ve Been Since 2021

July 10, 2026
Saving for a down payment can feel like the hardest part of buying a home. And with affordability as tight as it’s been lately, it’s fair to wonder how anyone manages it right now. Here’s something you may not have seen coming.  Some people are getting their foot in the door with a smaller down payment. According to Realtor.com, the typical buyer put down about $23,400 in early 2026 – that's around $5,000 below what was typical the year before (a 19% drop year over year). That’s the lowest down payments have been since 2021 (see graph below):

What Buying or Selling a Home Gives Back to Your Community

July 10, 2026
Buying or selling a home is a big financial decision. And right now, it feels even bigger. Inflation is high, costs are high, and you want to be sure the timing is right before you make your move. But if you do decide to go for it, whether you're buying or selling , here's something reassuring to hold onto. Not only does your move change your own life, but it also gives your whole community a boost. Real estate is a huge part of the economy. In 2025, it added up to about $5.6 trillion, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). A good share of that comes from everyday people buying and selling homes, just like you. Your Move Puts Real Money Into the Local Economy Every sale sends money flowing through your area. NAR data shows that buying an existing home (one that's already been lived in) adds about $64,000 to the local economy. Buy a newly built home , and that number climbs to more than $134,000 (see graph below):

Your House Didn’t Sell. Here’s How To Turn It Around.

July 4, 2026
When your house doesn’t sell, it’s not just disappointing. It messes with your timing. Your plans. Your confidence. You start second-guessing everything, including the decision to move in the first place. And that raises 2 big questions: Do you try again? Is it even worth it to sell and move? Here’s the secret to getting a better outcome the second time around. Different Agent. Different Results. Most sellers who re-list and ultimately sell don’t wait for market to magically change. They change their approach. And there’s data to back that up. Research from REDX shows homeowners who put their house back on the market with a different agent are more likely to sell than homeowners who re-used the same agent. Not to mention, they see their homes sell faster (see graph below ): 

The 1 Factor That Explains Everything Happening with Home Prices Right Now

July 1, 2026
You've probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that's true – nationally. But zoom in on individual markets across the country, and the picture looks completely different depending on where you are. Some areas are still seeing solid price growth . Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what's causing all of that variation? It All Comes Down to Inventory Here's the simple version: When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options. More options, means more competition for sellers, less competition for buyers. More competition for sellers means that the sellers can't push prices as high. On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up. That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country. Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are still seeing prices rise. As Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub , puts it : "Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing." The Maps Say It All Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019. In most places (the states in gray below), inventory still falls short of where we were back then. And that’s exactly why prices are climbing, albeit moderately, in the vast majority of states. But you’re probably more interested in where prices are falling a bit, since that’s what is making headlines. So, let’s prove out how much inventory affects prices in those spots. According to Realtor.com , 15 states and Washington, D.C. are now back above pre-pandemic inventory levels, and some by a wide margin ( see the orange in the map below ): 

Is It Still a Seller's Market? Here's What the Data Says.

June 26, 2026
Remember a few years back when sellers held all the power and buyers were stuck offering way over asking or waiving inspections just to get a chance at the house? In many markets, those days are behind us. While it’s going to vary by area, more metros are slowly shifting to favor buyers, and the market is starting to look a lot more like a two-way street again. And that balance is something we haven’t had in a while. Whether you're buying or selling, here's what you need to know about what's changing and what it means for your move. The Most Buyer-Friendly Market in Years The national data tells an interesting story right now. According to Realtor.com : "The national housing market is balanced but gradually loosening as the cycle moves in a more buyer-friendly direction . . . " That’s because, over the past few years, more and more metros have been flipping back to more buyer-friendly terms as inventory’s grown. And when you zoom in on the latest Realtor.com data for the top 50 metro markets over time, the trend becomes really clear ( see graph below ). Back in 2021, almost all major metros were seller's markets. By the end of 2025, only 1 in 3 still favored sellers. That's an obvious shift.

That House That’s Been Sitting Could Be Your Best Shot at a Deal

June 24, 2026
Open up a home search and you'll see them. Listings that have been on the market for two months. Three. Some longer. Most buyers scroll right past them, assuming something’s wrong with the house. But that instinct could be costing you, since the longer a home sits, the more motivated the seller usually gets. Where Some Buyers Are Finding Better Deals If affordability has been your #1 hurdle to buying, here’s a surprisingly simple strategy that could help you finally get your foot in the door. Start with the homes that have been sitting the longest. That’s often where the best deals are. Here’s why. Data from Realtor.com shows there’s a connection between longer time on the market and lower sales prices. Basically, the longer a house sits, the more likely it is that the seller will reduce the price (see graph below): 

Two Big Reasons To Move This Summer

June 20, 2026
A lot of people who want to move are telling themselves the same thing: " Maybe I'll just wait until later this year once things calm down ." While waiting sounds like a good plan, there's something worth knowing before you decide. Rates aren’t expected to change much, so if that’s the #1 reason you’re waiting, it may not pay off. And there may be other things you miss out on in the meantime. Historically, Summer is one of the strongest seasons of the year for both buyers and sellers. And if you delay your move until Fall or Winter, some of those opportunities may already be fading. Buyers: Fresh Inventory Is Your Real Summer Advantage One of the biggest frustrations buyers have faced over the past few years has been a lack of affordable options . Maybe you’ve run into that yourself: You find a house you like, but it's out of your budget. You find something in your budget, but you don’t like it. Or worse, nothing interesting hits the market for weeks. Historically, Summer helps with that. Looking at data from the last few years, Summer months consistently bring more sellers into the market than later in the year. And that gives buyers a real window of fresh choices. According to Realtor.com , any given Summer month typically sees about 32% more fresh options than the average month from September-December.
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Selling a Luxury House? Here’s Why Now Is a Good Time

July 28, 2026
If you own a luxury house, you're in a stronger spot than most sellers right now. While much of the market has cooled, the high-end tier hasn't. Sale prices and buyer demand are both up. So if you're considering selling, now could be a great time to make your move. Luxury Is Leading on Price Let’s start with prices . But before we get into it – what actually counts as a luxury home? Generally, these are homes in the top 5% price range for the area, so it varies depending on where you live, and what part of the country. But what’s interesting is that according to the latest data from Redfin , sale prices for luxury houses have risen about three times faster than for non-luxury. Right now, the typical home’s sale price is up about 1.5% year-over-year. But high-end homes? Their sale prices have gone up nearly 5% since last year ( see graph below ): 

14 Years Running: Why Real Estate Is Still America’s Favorite Investment

July 25, 2026
Quick gut reaction. Which investment do Americans trust more than stocks, gold, savings accounts, and bonds? The answer hasn't changed in 14 years. It's real estate. And this year, that answer comes with even more conviction behind it. New data shows people aren't just saying homeownership is a smart move, they're feeling better about it than they have in years. Let's dig into why. Real Estate Takes the Top Spot – Again Every year, Gallup asks Americans to name the best long-term investment. And for the 14th year in a row, real estate came out on top ( see graph below ):

More Homes, Better Prices: A Buyer’s Summer

July 21, 2026
If you’ve thought about buying a home in the past few years, you may have run into two frustrations: asking prices that kept climbing and too few homes to choose from. In many places, both sticking points are letting up this summer, with lower asking prices and more homes for sale. Let’s look at the trends, and what they mean for your search. Sellers Are Pricing To Attract Buyers According to Realtor.com , the national median asking price was $430,000 in June, nearly $11,000 under what it was the year before ( see graph below ):

Down Payments Are Smaller Than They’ve Been Since 2021

July 10, 2026
Saving for a down payment can feel like the hardest part of buying a home. And with affordability as tight as it’s been lately, it’s fair to wonder how anyone manages it right now. Here’s something you may not have seen coming.  Some people are getting their foot in the door with a smaller down payment. According to Realtor.com, the typical buyer put down about $23,400 in early 2026 – that's around $5,000 below what was typical the year before (a 19% drop year over year). That’s the lowest down payments have been since 2021 (see graph below):

What Buying or Selling a Home Gives Back to Your Community

July 10, 2026
Buying or selling a home is a big financial decision. And right now, it feels even bigger. Inflation is high, costs are high, and you want to be sure the timing is right before you make your move. But if you do decide to go for it, whether you're buying or selling , here's something reassuring to hold onto. Not only does your move change your own life, but it also gives your whole community a boost. Real estate is a huge part of the economy. In 2025, it added up to about $5.6 trillion, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). A good share of that comes from everyday people buying and selling homes, just like you. Your Move Puts Real Money Into the Local Economy Every sale sends money flowing through your area. NAR data shows that buying an existing home (one that's already been lived in) adds about $64,000 to the local economy. Buy a newly built home , and that number climbs to more than $134,000 (see graph below):

Your House Didn’t Sell. Here’s How To Turn It Around.

July 4, 2026
When your house doesn’t sell, it’s not just disappointing. It messes with your timing. Your plans. Your confidence. You start second-guessing everything, including the decision to move in the first place. And that raises 2 big questions: Do you try again? Is it even worth it to sell and move? Here’s the secret to getting a better outcome the second time around. Different Agent. Different Results. Most sellers who re-list and ultimately sell don’t wait for market to magically change. They change their approach. And there’s data to back that up. Research from REDX shows homeowners who put their house back on the market with a different agent are more likely to sell than homeowners who re-used the same agent. Not to mention, they see their homes sell faster (see graph below ): 

The 1 Factor That Explains Everything Happening with Home Prices Right Now

July 1, 2026
You've probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that's true – nationally. But zoom in on individual markets across the country, and the picture looks completely different depending on where you are. Some areas are still seeing solid price growth . Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what's causing all of that variation? It All Comes Down to Inventory Here's the simple version: When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options. More options, means more competition for sellers, less competition for buyers. More competition for sellers means that the sellers can't push prices as high. On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up. That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country. Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are still seeing prices rise. As Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub , puts it : "Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing." The Maps Say It All Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019. In most places (the states in gray below), inventory still falls short of where we were back then. And that’s exactly why prices are climbing, albeit moderately, in the vast majority of states. But you’re probably more interested in where prices are falling a bit, since that’s what is making headlines. So, let’s prove out how much inventory affects prices in those spots. According to Realtor.com , 15 states and Washington, D.C. are now back above pre-pandemic inventory levels, and some by a wide margin ( see the orange in the map below ): 

Is It Still a Seller's Market? Here's What the Data Says.

June 26, 2026
Remember a few years back when sellers held all the power and buyers were stuck offering way over asking or waiving inspections just to get a chance at the house? In many markets, those days are behind us. While it’s going to vary by area, more metros are slowly shifting to favor buyers, and the market is starting to look a lot more like a two-way street again. And that balance is something we haven’t had in a while. Whether you're buying or selling, here's what you need to know about what's changing and what it means for your move. The Most Buyer-Friendly Market in Years The national data tells an interesting story right now. According to Realtor.com : "The national housing market is balanced but gradually loosening as the cycle moves in a more buyer-friendly direction . . . " That’s because, over the past few years, more and more metros have been flipping back to more buyer-friendly terms as inventory’s grown. And when you zoom in on the latest Realtor.com data for the top 50 metro markets over time, the trend becomes really clear ( see graph below ). Back in 2021, almost all major metros were seller's markets. By the end of 2025, only 1 in 3 still favored sellers. That's an obvious shift.

That House That’s Been Sitting Could Be Your Best Shot at a Deal

June 24, 2026
Open up a home search and you'll see them. Listings that have been on the market for two months. Three. Some longer. Most buyers scroll right past them, assuming something’s wrong with the house. But that instinct could be costing you, since the longer a home sits, the more motivated the seller usually gets. Where Some Buyers Are Finding Better Deals If affordability has been your #1 hurdle to buying, here’s a surprisingly simple strategy that could help you finally get your foot in the door. Start with the homes that have been sitting the longest. That’s often where the best deals are. Here’s why. Data from Realtor.com shows there’s a connection between longer time on the market and lower sales prices. Basically, the longer a house sits, the more likely it is that the seller will reduce the price (see graph below): 

Two Big Reasons To Move This Summer

June 20, 2026
A lot of people who want to move are telling themselves the same thing: " Maybe I'll just wait until later this year once things calm down ." While waiting sounds like a good plan, there's something worth knowing before you decide. Rates aren’t expected to change much, so if that’s the #1 reason you’re waiting, it may not pay off. And there may be other things you miss out on in the meantime. Historically, Summer is one of the strongest seasons of the year for both buyers and sellers. And if you delay your move until Fall or Winter, some of those opportunities may already be fading. Buyers: Fresh Inventory Is Your Real Summer Advantage One of the biggest frustrations buyers have faced over the past few years has been a lack of affordable options . Maybe you’ve run into that yourself: You find a house you like, but it's out of your budget. You find something in your budget, but you don’t like it. Or worse, nothing interesting hits the market for weeks. Historically, Summer helps with that. Looking at data from the last few years, Summer months consistently bring more sellers into the market than later in the year. And that gives buyers a real window of fresh choices. According to Realtor.com , any given Summer month typically sees about 32% more fresh options than the average month from September-December.
Show More