Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year

Price cuts are turning up everywhere right now, and they read very differently depending on which side of the deal you’re on. Sellers tend to worry a cut means walking away with less than they hoped. Sometimes that’s true, but more often it just means the market moved faster than the listing did. Buyers , for their part, often assume a cut means something’s wrong with the house. Most of the time, that’s not it. This is what's actually driving all those price cuts, and why it matters no matter which side of the deal you're on. 42% of Homes for Sale Are Now Carrying a Price Cut According to HousingWire Data , the share of sellers cutting their asking price has climbed every month for 7 straight months (see chart below):

You may have seen the headlines saying mortgage rates have climbed to the highest point since January 2025. And if that's left you reluctant to buy a home, here's what you need to remember… That's not necessarily the number you'd get. It's a common misconception that the rate you see in the headlines is the same one you'd get when you buy. The truth is, mortgage rates shift often, and the rate you actually end up with can vary a lot from what you may see or hear about. What Determines Your Real Rate? Advertised rates and “real rates” aren’t always the same. That’s because real rates are based on your specific situation, which includes your overall finances and goals. The rates you see in the headlines can’t possibly reflect that. That’s why only a lender can tell you what your real rate will be. To figure out your unique number, they’ll look at: Your credit score : Your credit score includes your payment history (if you’ve made late payments – and how often), credit utilization (are your accounts maxed out, or do you have available credit?), and the length of your credit history (how long have your accounts been open?). For example, someone with an exceptional credit score may qualify for a better rate. Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI) : This is calculated by dividing your monthly debt payments by your monthly income before taxes to come up with a percentage. The higher your DTI, the higher your rate could be. The down payment size and Loan-to-Value (LTV): Your down payment is the percentage of the home’s price you will put down. The LTV is the percentage of a home’s sales price that equals your mortgage. The type and term of loan program options: Your loan officer will walk you through different loan options based on what you qualify for. Mortgage rates can vary between different loan products and programs. Even after you find a home you love, other things can have an impact too. For example: A mortgage rate buydown: This helps you get a lower mortgage rate, and by extension, a lower monthly payment, by paying an upfront cost. Sometimes a seller, builder, or another party may even offer to cover that cost themselves as an incentive for you to buy. Seller concessions : Sellers are allowed to pay buyer closing costs according to most loan program guidelines. Seller-paid closing costs can add up to thousands of dollars, which can free up some cash for you to increase your down payment, pay down debt, or make other financial adjustments to try to get a better rate. Your First Step? Getting Pre-Approved. If you want to know if your number could be higher or lower than the headlines on social, you need to talk to an expert. A simple conversation with a loan officer can help you determine when you’ll be ready to buy, how much you can borrow, and of course, what your real rate will be. Your lender may recommend a pre-qualification and pre-approval: Pre-qualification is a general estimate of what you might be able to borrow based on self-reported information. On the flip side, pre-approval is actually a conditional commitment from a lender based on verified information. Just know that, of the two, the pre-approval process gives you a more accurate picture of your options than pre-qualification. Bankrate gives a quick comparison so you can see why: 

Data centers probably weren't on your list of things to think about when buying or selling a home. School districts? Sure. How close you are to family? Absolutely. A large building full of computer servers down the road? Probably not. But that may be changing. Data centers are popping up in more communities across the country. And as they do, buyers and homeowners are starting to wonder what having one nearby could mean for everything from home values to utility bills. So, let's get into what the data actually says. Because there's a lot more nuance here than if they’re “good” or “bad.” Data Centers Are Showing Up in a Lot More ZIP Codes According to Realtor.com , back in 2015, only about a dozen ZIP codes had a large data center. But by the first half of 2026, that number had climbed to more than 100 – and it's projected to rise even further by the end of the year ( see graph below ):

Summer's winding down, and if you've been thinking about selling , you might be wondering if you missed your chance. Better to wait until next year or even next spring, right? Not so fast. About one in three of all home sales happen in the last four months of the year. Fall Is Busier than You Think Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows around a third of existing home sales happen in the final four months of the year. And that share has grown every year since 2023 ( see graph below ):

You've been waiting for something to change before you buy. It just might not be the thing you expected… While everyone’s paying attention to mortgage rates , only the savviest buyers know that the changing season can start tipping things in their favor. Because every fall, buyers tend to get more to choose from, better prices, and more room to negotiate. And that’s why Hannah Jones, Senior Economist at Realtor.com , says : “ We always see that the best time to buy window usually falls in the early fall around October. ” And that’s exactly why, if you've been waiting for a better moment to buy, this season may be worth a closer look – even with rates where they are. 1. There Are More Homes To Choose From One of the biggest frustrations buyers have had over the past few years has been a lack of choices. Fall tends to help with that. Based on seasonal trends, Realtor.com data shows there are typically more homes available for sale in September through November than during any other season of the year ( see graph below ): 

For most first-time buyers, the hardest part of buying a home is making the numbers work . You budget, you save, and the finish line still feels far away. But your salary is only half the equation. Where you live shapes what you can afford just as much. And if you can work remotely, you have an advantage a lot of buyers don't. You're not tied to living where the jobs are, so you can look where your money goes further. Where You Work Doesn’t Have To Dictate Where You Live Remote job openings are on the rise. According to FlexJobs, remote job postings climbed 22% from the quarter before. That’s the second quarter in a row of double-digit growth. More remote roles mean more people can choose a home base around the life they want to build. As Forbes puts it : “ Remote employees, freelancers, consultants, entrepreneurs, and business owners have the flexibility to choose a home base based on the life they want to build, whether that means more space, a lower cost of living, better access to nature, or simply somewhere new." And you can use that freedom to look somewhere more affordable . Your Paycheck Goes Much Further in Some States Your cost of living – what you spend on housing, groceries, utilities, and the rest of daily life – varies a lot from one state to the next. In some, according to data from Extra Space, it runs far enough below the national average to change what you can afford ( see map below ):

You're scrolling through listings on your phone and everything looks good until you see the price (or the estimated monthly payment). Then you close the app. Because even if you love the house, the numbers feel impossible. But here's the thing, they may not be. Nationally, there are more homes sitting on the market than there are people out there looking. And when sellers need buyers more than buyers need sellers , that shows up in the price. Lower asking prices. More price cuts. And homes priced for what buyers can actually afford – not what sellers hope someone might pay. And it may be enough to make buying more doable than you’d think. 4 Out of 10 Sellers Are Cutting Their Price One of the clearest signs sellers are adjusting? Price cuts. HousingWire Data shows more than 40% of sellers are dropping this price. That’s just slightly behind the volume we saw last year ( see graph below ): 

Lately, headlines have floated an eye-catching idea about tapping into your 401(k) to cover a down payment on a home. Maybe you've caught the buzz and wondered whether that money could get you into a home faster, especially with affordability as tough as it is. Here’s what you need to remember. Pulling from your retirement savings is a big decision, so take time to weigh all your options first and be sure to talk with a financial expert before you do anything. A lot of buyers ask if they can use retirement money for a down payment. The short answer is: sometimes. The better answer is: there are a few different ways to do it, and they are not all the same. 1. 401(k) loan (borrowing from yourself) If your employer plan allows it, this is usually the cleanest option. You borrow from your own 401(k), typically up to 50% of your vested balance or $50,000, whichever is less. There is generally no income tax and no 10% penalty as long as you repay it on schedule. The interest you pay goes back into your own account. Two things to watch: If you leave your job before the loan is paid off, the remaining balance can become taxable. Some plans allow a longer payoff period when the loan is used to buy a primary residence. 2. 401(k) hardship withdrawal Some plans allow a withdrawal for costs tied to buying a principal residence. This is not a loan. You do not pay it back. You will usually owe income tax, and if you’re under 59½ the 10% penalty often still applies. There is no special first-time homebuyer penalty exception for 401(k)s. 3. IRA first-time homebuyer exception IRAs work differently. You generally cannot take a loan from an IRA, but first-time buyers (no principal residence in the last two years) may withdraw up to $10,000 penalty-free. A married couple can often use $10,000 each. Traditional IRA withdrawals are still taxable. Roth IRA contributions can usually come out tax- and penalty-free; earnings have extra rules Why Dipping into a 401(k) Can Be Tempting Data from Empower shows many Americans have built up considerable retirement savings. The median 401(k) amount for anyone in their 40s-60s is six figures (see graph below  ):

When's the last time someone told you what your house is worth? Not what some online valuation tool guessed. Not what your neighbor's house sold for. What yours is actually worth right now . For a lot of homeowners, it's been years. And if you've been thinking about moving , but higher home prices or mortgage rates have made you hesitate, here’s why it’s time to take a second look at that number. Your House May Be Worth More Than You Think Home values have climbed significantly over the past 5-10 years. And even though today's market is more balanced , homeowners are building wealth every day just by owning their homes. That’s how equity works. As home values rise, and as you make your monthly payments, your equity grows. And it adds up fast. According to Cotality , the typical homeowner with a mortgage now has $310,500 in equity. That's not a small number. It’s six figures. And that’s only the national average. In many states, homeowners have built even more equity than that. Take a look at the map below and see where your state stands. The darker the blue, the more equity the typical homeowner has there (see map below):