Is It Getting More Affordable To Buy a Home?
April 25, 2024
Over the past year or so, a lot of people have been talking about how tough it is to buy a home. And while there’s no arguing affordability is still tight, there are signs it’s starting to get a bit better and may improve even more throughout the year. Elijah de la Campa, Senior Economist at Redfin, says:
“We’re slowly climbing our way out of an affordability hole, but we have a long way to go. Rates have come down from their peak and are expected to fall again by the end of the year, which should make homebuying a little more affordable and incentivize buyers to come off the sidelines.”
Here’s a look at the latest data for the three biggest factors that affect home affordability: mortgage rates, home prices, and wages.
1. Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have been volatile this year – bouncing around in the upper 6% to low 7% range. That’s still quite a bit higher than where they were a couple of years ago. But there is a sliver of good news.
Despite the recent volatility, rates are still lower than they were last fall when they reached nearly 8%. On top of that, most experts still think they’ll come down some over the course of the year. A recent article from Bright MLS explains:
“Expect rates to come down in the second half of 2024 but remain above 6% this year. Even a modest drop in rates will bring both more buyers and more sellers into the market.”
Any drop in rates can make a difference for you. When rates go down, you can afford the home you really want more easily because your monthly payment would be lower.
2. Home Prices
The second big factor to think about is home prices. Most experts project they'll keep going up this year, but at a more normal pace. That’s because there are more homes on the market this year, but still not enough for everyone who wants to buy one. The graph below shows the latest 2024 home price forecasts from seven different organizations:
These forecasts are actually good news for you because it means the prices aren't likely to shoot up sky high like they did during the pandemic. That doesn’t mean they’re going to fall – they'll just rise at a slower pace.
3. Wages
One factor helping affordability right now is the fact that wages are rising. The graph below uses data from the Federal Reserve to show how wages have been growing over time:
Check out the blue dotted line. That shows how wages typically rise. If you look at the right side of the graph, you'll see wages are climbing even faster than normal right now.
Here’s how this helps you. If your income has increased, it's easier to afford a home because you don't have to spend as big of a percentage of your paycheck on your monthly mortgage payment.
Bottom Line
If you stack these factors up, you’ll see mortgage rates are still projected to come down a bit later this year, home prices are going up at a more moderate pace, and wages are growing quicker than normal. Those trends are a good sign for your ability to afford a home.
If you own a luxury house, you're in a stronger spot than most sellers right now. While much of the market has cooled, the high-end tier hasn't. Sale prices and buyer demand are both up. So if you're considering selling, now could be a great time to make your move. Luxury Is Leading on Price Let’s start with prices . But before we get into it – what actually counts as a luxury home? Generally, these are homes in the top 5% price range for the area, so it varies depending on where you live, and what part of the country. But what’s interesting is that according to the latest data from Redfin , sale prices for luxury houses have risen about three times faster than for non-luxury. Right now, the typical home’s sale price is up about 1.5% year-over-year. But high-end homes? Their sale prices have gone up nearly 5% since last year ( see graph below ):
Quick gut reaction. Which investment do Americans trust more than stocks, gold, savings accounts, and bonds? The answer hasn't changed in 14 years. It's real estate. And this year, that answer comes with even more conviction behind it. New data shows people aren't just saying homeownership is a smart move, they're feeling better about it than they have in years. Let's dig into why. Real Estate Takes the Top Spot – Again Every year, Gallup asks Americans to name the best long-term investment. And for the 14th year in a row, real estate came out on top ( see graph below ):
If you’ve thought about buying a home in the past few years, you may have run into two frustrations: asking prices that kept climbing and too few homes to choose from. In many places, both sticking points are letting up this summer, with lower asking prices and more homes for sale. Let’s look at the trends, and what they mean for your search. Sellers Are Pricing To Attract Buyers According to Realtor.com , the national median asking price was $430,000 in June, nearly $11,000 under what it was the year before ( see graph below ):
Saving for a down payment can feel like the hardest part of buying a home. And with affordability as tight as it’s been lately, it’s fair to wonder how anyone manages it right now. Here’s something you may not have seen coming. Some people are getting their foot in the door with a smaller down payment. According to Realtor.com, the typical buyer put down about $23,400 in early 2026 – that's around $5,000 below what was typical the year before (a 19% drop year over year). That’s the lowest down payments have been since 2021 (see graph below):
Buying or selling a home is a big financial decision. And right now, it feels even bigger. Inflation is high, costs are high, and you want to be sure the timing is right before you make your move. But if you do decide to go for it, whether you're buying or selling , here's something reassuring to hold onto. Not only does your move change your own life, but it also gives your whole community a boost. Real estate is a huge part of the economy. In 2025, it added up to about $5.6 trillion, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). A good share of that comes from everyday people buying and selling homes, just like you. Your Move Puts Real Money Into the Local Economy Every sale sends money flowing through your area. NAR data shows that buying an existing home (one that's already been lived in) adds about $64,000 to the local economy. Buy a newly built home , and that number climbs to more than $134,000 (see graph below):
When your house doesn’t sell, it’s not just disappointing. It messes with your timing. Your plans. Your confidence. You start second-guessing everything, including the decision to move in the first place. And that raises 2 big questions: Do you try again? Is it even worth it to sell and move? Here’s the secret to getting a better outcome the second time around. Different Agent. Different Results. Most sellers who re-list and ultimately sell don’t wait for market to magically change. They change their approach. And there’s data to back that up. Research from REDX shows homeowners who put their house back on the market with a different agent are more likely to sell than homeowners who re-used the same agent. Not to mention, they see their homes sell faster (see graph below ):
You've probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that's true – nationally. But zoom in on individual markets across the country, and the picture looks completely different depending on where you are. Some areas are still seeing solid price growth . Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what's causing all of that variation? It All Comes Down to Inventory Here's the simple version: When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options. More options, means more competition for sellers, less competition for buyers. More competition for sellers means that the sellers can't push prices as high. On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up. That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country. Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are still seeing prices rise. As Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub , puts it : "Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing." The Maps Say It All Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019. In most places (the states in gray below), inventory still falls short of where we were back then. And that’s exactly why prices are climbing, albeit moderately, in the vast majority of states. But you’re probably more interested in where prices are falling a bit, since that’s what is making headlines. So, let’s prove out how much inventory affects prices in those spots. According to Realtor.com , 15 states and Washington, D.C. are now back above pre-pandemic inventory levels, and some by a wide margin ( see the orange in the map below ):
Remember a few years back when sellers held all the power and buyers were stuck offering way over asking or waiving inspections just to get a chance at the house? In many markets, those days are behind us. While it’s going to vary by area, more metros are slowly shifting to favor buyers, and the market is starting to look a lot more like a two-way street again. And that balance is something we haven’t had in a while. Whether you're buying or selling, here's what you need to know about what's changing and what it means for your move. The Most Buyer-Friendly Market in Years The national data tells an interesting story right now. According to Realtor.com : "The national housing market is balanced but gradually loosening as the cycle moves in a more buyer-friendly direction . . . " That’s because, over the past few years, more and more metros have been flipping back to more buyer-friendly terms as inventory’s grown. And when you zoom in on the latest Realtor.com data for the top 50 metro markets over time, the trend becomes really clear ( see graph below ). Back in 2021, almost all major metros were seller's markets. By the end of 2025, only 1 in 3 still favored sellers. That's an obvious shift.
Open up a home search and you'll see them. Listings that have been on the market for two months. Three. Some longer. Most buyers scroll right past them, assuming something’s wrong with the house. But that instinct could be costing you, since the longer a home sits, the more motivated the seller usually gets. Where Some Buyers Are Finding Better Deals If affordability has been your #1 hurdle to buying, here’s a surprisingly simple strategy that could help you finally get your foot in the door. Start with the homes that have been sitting the longest. That’s often where the best deals are. Here’s why. Data from Realtor.com shows there’s a connection between longer time on the market and lower sales prices. Basically, the longer a house sits, the more likely it is that the seller will reduce the price (see graph below):
A lot of people who want to move are telling themselves the same thing: " Maybe I'll just wait until later this year once things calm down ." While waiting sounds like a good plan, there's something worth knowing before you decide. Rates aren’t expected to change much, so if that’s the #1 reason you’re waiting, it may not pay off. And there may be other things you miss out on in the meantime. Historically, Summer is one of the strongest seasons of the year for both buyers and sellers. And if you delay your move until Fall or Winter, some of those opportunities may already be fading. Buyers: Fresh Inventory Is Your Real Summer Advantage One of the biggest frustrations buyers have faced over the past few years has been a lack of affordable options . Maybe you’ve run into that yourself: You find a house you like, but it's out of your budget. You find something in your budget, but you don’t like it. Or worse, nothing interesting hits the market for weeks. Historically, Summer helps with that. Looking at data from the last few years, Summer months consistently bring more sellers into the market than later in the year. And that gives buyers a real window of fresh choices. According to Realtor.com , any given Summer month typically sees about 32% more fresh options than the average month from September-December.
