Is It Getting More Affordable To Buy a Home?
April 25, 2024
Over the past year or so, a lot of people have been talking about how tough it is to buy a home. And while there’s no arguing affordability is still tight, there are signs it’s starting to get a bit better and may improve even more throughout the year. Elijah de la Campa, Senior Economist at Redfin, says:
“We’re slowly climbing our way out of an affordability hole, but we have a long way to go. Rates have come down from their peak and are expected to fall again by the end of the year, which should make homebuying a little more affordable and incentivize buyers to come off the sidelines.”
Here’s a look at the latest data for the three biggest factors that affect home affordability: mortgage rates, home prices, and wages.
1. Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have been volatile this year – bouncing around in the upper 6% to low 7% range. That’s still quite a bit higher than where they were a couple of years ago. But there is a sliver of good news.
Despite the recent volatility, rates are still lower than they were last fall when they reached nearly 8%. On top of that, most experts still think they’ll come down some over the course of the year. A recent article from Bright MLS explains:
“Expect rates to come down in the second half of 2024 but remain above 6% this year. Even a modest drop in rates will bring both more buyers and more sellers into the market.”
Any drop in rates can make a difference for you. When rates go down, you can afford the home you really want more easily because your monthly payment would be lower.
2. Home Prices
The second big factor to think about is home prices. Most experts project they'll keep going up this year, but at a more normal pace. That’s because there are more homes on the market this year, but still not enough for everyone who wants to buy one. The graph below shows the latest 2024 home price forecasts from seven different organizations:
These forecasts are actually good news for you because it means the prices aren't likely to shoot up sky high like they did during the pandemic. That doesn’t mean they’re going to fall – they'll just rise at a slower pace.
3. Wages
One factor helping affordability right now is the fact that wages are rising. The graph below uses data from the Federal Reserve to show how wages have been growing over time:
Check out the blue dotted line. That shows how wages typically rise. If you look at the right side of the graph, you'll see wages are climbing even faster than normal right now.
Here’s how this helps you. If your income has increased, it's easier to afford a home because you don't have to spend as big of a percentage of your paycheck on your monthly mortgage payment.
Bottom Line
If you stack these factors up, you’ll see mortgage rates are still projected to come down a bit later this year, home prices are going up at a more moderate pace, and wages are growing quicker than normal. Those trends are a good sign for your ability to afford a home.
Data shows inflation is moving in the wrong direction. But before the headlines send anyone into a panic, here's what's actually going on, why it matters for the housing market, and what it means if you're thinking about buying or selling. Inflation Went Up – Here’s What That Actually Means The government tracks inflation in a variety of ways. One is something called PCE – the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. It measures how much more (or less) people are paying for goods and services compared to a year ago. And just based on your own expenses, you can probably guess which way that’s trending. That’s the one everyone is talking about right now. Check out the yellow line to see how that’s spiked since February ( see graph below ). A big driver of this jump is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed gas and energy prices significantly higher.
Whether you're dreaming about buying your first home or wondering if it’s time to move on from the one you're in, affordability is probably weighing on your mind. Home prices are still high in many markets, and even though things have improved a bit over the past year, making the numbers work can still feel like a stretch. But the people finding ways to move right now usually have one thing in common. They didn't wait for affordability to come to them. They went looking for it. According to PODS , 61% of people across all generations say affordability is the biggest factor when deciding where to move. And it's led a growing number of people to do one thing – broaden their search to include more affordable areas they hadn't seriously considered before. As PODS , put it: ". . . moving is increasingly driven by affordability, connection, and quality of life. As economic pressures persist, Americans are taking a more intentional, values-driven approach to where they choose to live.” It’s Not Just the Home Price – It’s the Whole Cost of Living Here's where it gets really interesting. When people talk about moving for affordability, they're not just talking about finding a cheaper house. They're thinking about the full picture. What does it actually cost to live somewhere? WalletHub looked at exactly this, measuring housing costs as a share of median monthly household income across every state ( see map below ). Take a look at where you live on that map. The lighter the blue, the more affordable it generally is to live there. The darker the blue? Just the opposite.
You may be telling yourself you’re going to wait to move – maybe you’re hoping mortgage rates will come down, prices will fall, or the market will feel a little easier. And honestly? A lot of people feel that way right now. But here’s what some are starting to realize. Waiting doesn’t usually fix the thing that made you want to move in the first place. Your family still desperately needs more room. Your empty nest still feels too...empty. Your parents or grandparents still need you to live closer. You just got married... or divorced. Your vision of retirement has you living somewhere else. Eventually, life can reach a point where waiting feels harder than moving. That’s why some people are still deciding to buy right now, even in today’s market. Not because conditions are perfect . But because the life changes behind their move never really went away. And maybe that’s exactly where you are too. If so, you’re certainly not alone. The Real Reasons People Move Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 1 in 5 buyers last year said they felt like they had to purchase a home at that time, no matter the market. That's an important reminder right now. Sure, the dollars and cents of your move have to make sense for you. But big life changes happen whether mortgage rates and home prices are high, low, or somewhere in between. And those big life events happen more than you may think. NAR says roughly 22.5 million people experience major life changes in a typical two-year span ( see graph below ):
You started shopping with a specific mental image of your future home in your mind. Then the houses in your budget came in smaller than you pictured. That’s the reality for a lot of buyers right now. Affordability is tight. But don’t let that discourage you. Going smaller might actually be a smart play in today’s market – and the upside can be bigger than you'd think. Let’s break down two places to look where smaller won’t necessarily feel like a compromise. Homebuilders Are Focused on Smaller Options Lately For starters, smaller is kind of on trend right now. Newly built homes have been shrinking for years. According to the latest data from the Census , the median square footage of new single-family homes has been falling overall since 2014 ( see graph below ):
If you’ve always assumed a newly built home is just not in your budget , you should know the math just got a little friendlier. The median sale price of a newly built home is now at its lowest level since 2021, according to the latest data from the Census . And on top of that, builders are still rolling out incentives to bring buyers through the door. Here's what's happening, and what it means if you're shopping right now. Prices on Newly Built Homes Have Come Down After a steep climb during the pandemic years, prices have eased a bit. The median sale price of newly built homes is sitting at about $390,000 nationwide. That’s the lowest it's been in nearly five years ( see graph below ):
Nearly half of Veterans (49%) feel homeownership is currently out of reach, according to a recent survey from NewDay USA . But many are closer than they think. And you might be, too. If you’re a Veteran, you probably know the Veterans Affairs (VA) home loan benefit exists – it's been around for over 80 years. What you might not know is what it actually covers. Three misconceptions trip up Veterans the most (see graph below):
Most sellers come into the market with one number in mind. And it’s often the one that costs them the most. That's their asking price . A survey from Realtor.com shows about 8 in 10 (80%) of sellers expect to sell at or above their asking price today. But here’s where things get interesting. In reality, only about 4 out of every 10 (roughly 40% ) actually do. That’s a big gap. And it’s where a lot of sellers get caught off guard. So, why the disconnect? And how can you set yourself up to be one of the 4 in 10 that get top dollar? Let’s break it down. What Should You Really Expect To Get for Your House? That 40% may sound low at first, but it’s not. If you look back to the last typical year for the housing market (2019), what we're really seeing is a return to what’s normal ( see chart below ). If anything, slightly more homeowners are able to sell above list price today compared to 2019:
Have you been thinking of mutual f a new home in Roseville, Granite Bay, or another one of our amazing Sacramento valley cities? One of the biggest hold ups some buyers have right now is thinking to themselves: “ What if I buy, and home prices go down ?” With everything in the news, that concern makes some sense. No one wants to make a big financial decision at the wrong time. But here’s what’s important to know. You don’t want to get hung up on the few places seeing slight declines right now. When you zoom out and look at the full picture, home prices usually rise over time. What the Data Really Shows Take a look at the visual below. It uses data from Case-Shiller and Bilello to show how home prices have changed year by year going all the way back to the 1950s. Here’s the key takeaway. Outside of the housing crash, home prices have either held steady or increased in just about every year for decades ( see visual below ) :
For a lot of would-be first-time buyers , affordability is the thing that’s standing in the way. But some buyers are getting creative and finding a way to still make the numbers work – and that’s through co-buying . The Dream Is Still Alive. The Math Just Isn’t Working for Everyone. Young people haven’t given up on the dream of owning a home – not even close. According to FirstHome IQ, homeownership still ranks among the top life goals for the next generation. The problem? 73% of Gen Z and millennial buyers cite affordability as the reason for not making homeownership a priority. And it shows. First-time buyers now make up just 21% of all home purchases , the lowest share since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) started tracking the data in 1981. But still, some buyers are making it happen. And a portion of them are turning to co-buying to get their foot in the door. So, What’s Co-Buying? Co-buying means purchasing a home with someone else, like a friend, sibling, or unmarried partner. You combine incomes, split the down payment, and share monthly costs. For some people, it’s a creative way to turn “someday” into a concrete move-in date that’s just around the corner. And it's catching on fast, just look at where things stand today. According to CoBuy.io , 64 million Americans now co-own a home with someone they’re not married to. In fact, 31.5% of home purchases involve co-buyers ( see graph below ):
Selling your house this season? You’ve probably heard you should stage it before it hits the market. But what does that really mean – and is it worth the effort? The short answer is “yes,” especially right now. With more houses for sale this year, you’re likely wondering how to make the most money possible without your house sitting on the market. The answer is staging. It can help your house stand out, bring in stronger offers, and sell faster . As Nadia Evangelou, Principal Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), puts it: “Staging matters. Preparing the home to be ‘buyer-ready’ attracts more buyers, especially now that inventory has increased.” Here's what staging actually involves and what it could do for your sale. What Is Home Staging? Home staging is the process of preparing your house, so it appeals to as many buyers as possible . That usually means decluttering, deep cleaning, rearranging furniture, and adding simple touches that help each room feel bright, open, and welcoming. The goal is to help buyers fall in love with the space and picture themselves living there , which makes them more likely to make an offer. Why Staging Is Worth the Effort Staged houses tend to perform better on almost every metric that matters when you sell. According to Redfin , staged homes have been shown to sell up to 73% faster than unstaged homes. And they often close in under a month, compared to anywhere from two to three months for vacant ones. There’s also a strong return on the money you spend. The Home Staging Institute says mid-level staging can deliver a 350% return on investment. On a $400k home, that turns the typical $4k cost into roughly $18k in added value when you sell ( see graph below ):
