Housing Market Forecast: What’s Ahead for the 2nd Half of 2024

If you’re like a lot of homeowners, you’ve probably thought: “ I’d like to move… but I don’t want to give up my 3% rate. ” That’s fair. That rate has been one of your best financial wins – and it can be hard to let go. But here’s what you need to remember... A great rate won’t make up for a home that no longer works for you. Life changes, and sometimes, your home needs to change with it. And you’re not the only one making that choice. The Lock-In Effect Is Starting To Ease Many homeowners have been frozen in place by something the experts call the lock-in effect. That's when you won't move because you don’t want to take on a higher rate on your next home loan. But data from Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows the lock-in effect is slowly starting to ease for some people. The share of homeowners with a mortgage rate below 3% ( the yellow in the graph below ) is slowly declining as more people move. And while some of the people with a rate over 6% are first-time buyers, the number of homeowners with a rate above 6% (the blue) is rising as others take on higher rates for their next home: 

New home construction today is giving buyers something it feels like they haven't gotten much lately: a real shot at both the home they want and the deal they need. More brand-new options are on the market right now, and builders are rolling out incentives that make these homes more affordable than many people expect. It’s a combination that doesn’t come around often – and it’s putting buyers in a surprisingly strong position this season. Here’s why this moment matters and why it’s worth partnering with your own local agent to take advantage of it. 1. More New Homes Are Available Now – and That May Not Last There’s more new construction on the market today than normal. And for buyers, that means: More cutting-edge communities More move-in-ready homes More floor plans to pick from More upgraded designs and modern features But that variety may not last. Data from Zonda shows that even though it feels like new homes are popping up just about everywhere, builders have actually started pulling back. The number of starts (that’s when builders break ground) has been slowly but steadily declining over the past few years. And that’s good because it prevents overbuilding nationally. But here’s the real insight that can give you an edge. Forecasts show that slight downward trend should continue next year ( see graph below ):

Homebuyers are weighing their options right now, and they certainly have a lot on their minds. With everything going on in the job market, the economy, and more – there's a lot to think about these days. And maybe that’s making you wonder if it really makes sense to buy a home right now. But here’s what many recent buyers would tell you: even with all that, making a move is worth it . And this is why they’re thankful they went ahead and took the plunge already. Life doesn't wait for better market conditions. So, your decision shouldn't be about trying to time the market perfectly. It should be about moving when the time is right for you and what you need – and it’s different for everyone. The Real Reasons People Bought a Home According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), what’s really driving today’s moves is the desire for something better or something different . It’s a personal motivator or a change in what they need out of the home that pushed buyers to act this year ( see chart below ):

Want to know how to find the best deal possible in today’s housing market ? Here’s the secret. Focus on homes that have been sitting on the market for a while. Because when a listing lingers, sellers tend to get more realistic – and, more willing to negotiate. And that’s where the savviest buyers are finding homes other buyers overlook. The Opportunity: 1 in 5 Homes Has Had a Price Cut This Year According to Realtor.com , about 1 in every 5 listings (20.2%) have dropped their asking price at least once. And while so many things in today’s housing market vary by region, that number is consistent throughout the country. That tells you one thing... No matter where you live, there’s a chance to score a better deal. You just need to know where to look. And that’s where your agent comes in. The Tactic: Target Homes That Have Been Sitting the Longest Your agent can help you identify which homes have been on the market the longest. Those are the ones where you’re more likely to get a discount. That’s because the seller may be getting frustrated their house hasn’t sold yet, so they're more willing to play ball. And since a lot of buyers steer clear of homes that aren’t selling, you may be the only offer they get. So, you can lean in and push for a better deal. As Realtor.com explains: “Less competition means fewer bidding wars and more power to negotiate the extras that add up: closing cost credits, home warranties, even repair concessions . . . these concessions can end up knocking thousands of dollars off the price of a home .” And they’re not the only ones calling out the opportunity you have right now. Bankrate also says: “During the quieter fall and winter months, when fewer prospective buyers are shopping, home sellers may be more willing to lower their prices, or offer concessions, to attract those prospective buyers who are still looking. ” And the proof is in the data. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows a clear pattern: the longer a home stays on the market, the lower it tends to sell for compared to the original asking price .

Homebuyers are watching the economy closely, and for good reason. Buying a home is one of the biggest purchases most people ever make. And some recession talk in the media has made a lot of would-be buyers second guess their plans. In the latest LendingTree survey , almost 2 in 3 Americans said they think a recession is coming . And 74% of respondents say that's having an impact on their financial decisions. But here’s the good news: the experts aren’t nearly as concerned. Most Americans Expect a Recession, But Most Experts Don’t According to an October report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), only 1 in 3 experts surveyed say we may be headed for a recession sometime in the next 12 months ( see graph below ):

When the holidays roll around, travel plans, family gatherings, and all the chaos of the season may make you think it’s better to pull your listing off the market or to wait until 2026 to sell your house . But here’s the thing. Waiting could mean missing out on a great window of opportunity. Because while other sellers are stepping away, you can lean in – and that might actually give you the edge. Here are 4 reasons selling now may be the better bet. 1. Buyers This Time of Year Are Serious Don’t let the season fool you. While casual browsers tend to step back around the holidays, serious buyers stay in the game. The people looking for homes right now usually aren’t just browsing. They’re ready to make a move and they usually want to close before the new year. As Zillow says: While more buyers have tended to shop in the spring and summer months, those shopping in the winter are likely to be motivated — often moving because of a job relocation, change in financial situation, or change in family needs.” Their timelines are real and missing them would create a hassle for the buyer, so they’re eager to get the deal done. And that’s exactly the kind of buyer you want to work with. 2. You Have Control Over Your Schedule (and Showings) Some homeowners decide not to sell this time of year because they don’t want to juggle showings during the holiday rush. They’re anticipating traveling to see family and thinking about buyers in their home only adds another layer of complexity. But here’s what no one’s reminded them. You can control your showings and can set times that work for your schedule. You don’t have to stop your plans to keep your sale on track. The right agent can help you manage your calendar, your showings, and your stress level. 3. Other Sellers May Step Back, Which Means Less Competition Because fewer sellers tend to list this time of year, the number of homes for sale usually falls a bit. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS , explains: “As we approach the end of the year, listing activity tends to slow and would-be sellers decide to wait until after the new year to list . . .” And in a year when inventory has been steadily rising, that seasonal slowdown works in your favor. With the potential for fewer sellers on the market, your house will stand out. So, a seasonal dip in listings could help you get noticed , especially if your home is priced right and presented well. 4. Homes Decorated for the Holidays Can Feel More Inviting You may not realize it, but seasonal decor can actually help you appeal to buyers. Maybe it’s that they have an easier time picturing themselves making memories in the home. Maybe it just feels cozier and more inviting. Whatever the reason, it works. Sometimes tasteful seasonal touches can make it easier to sell your house. But don’t go overboard. Keep your choices simple to let your home’s charm shine through. Bottom Line There are plenty of good reasons to put (or keep) your house on the market during this time of year in Granite Bay, Roseville, Sacramento, or anywhere. If you want to talk strategy for how to make the most of this season in our market, let’s connect. 

A lot of buyers are stuck in “wait and see” mode right now. They’re watching rates hover a little above 6% and thinking, I’ll buy once they hit the 5s. Because who doesn’t want a better rate? But here’s the thing: that 5.99% number might not save you as much as you think. Affordability is still a challenge. There’s no question about that. But the market has given savvy buyers a head start. Mortgage rates have already come down over the past few months. And the drop we’ve seen saves you more than you’d think. How Much You’ve Already Saved, Without Realizing It Let's put some real numbers to it. Rates peaked for the year in May when they inched above 7%. But since then, they’ve been slowly declining. Now, they’re sitting in the low 6s. And while that may not sound like a big deal, that change translates to real dollars. According to data coming out of Redfin , the typical monthly payment on a $400,000 home is already down almost $400 since May. That means if you’re buying a home now here in Granite Bay, Roseville, Loomis, or anywhere in the Sacramento valley and beyond, you're saving hundreds of dollars every month compared to what you would have been able to get earlier this spring. That’s real money that makes a real difference for buyers who paused their plans because they thought homeownership was out of reach. And while it may be tempting to wait even longer to see bigger savings, that’s a gamble that could cost you. Here’s why. Where Experts Say Rates Are Headed For starters, most experts say mortgage rates are likely to stay pretty much where we are today throughout 2026. So, there’s no guarantee we’ll see a rate much lower than what we have now. Only one expert forecaster is saying rates could fall into the upper 5s next year ( see graph below ):

After several years of high mortgage rates and hesitation from buyers, momentum is quietly building beneath the surface of the housing market. Sellers are reappearing. Buyers are re-engaging. And for the first time in what feels like forever, there’s movement happening again. No, it’s not a surge. But it is a shift – and it’s one that could set the stage for a stronger year in 2026. So, what’s driving the comeback? Here are three big trends that are slowly breathing life back into the housing market right now. 1. Mortgage Rates Have Been Coming Down Mortgage rates are always going to have their ups and downs – that's just how rates work. Especially with the general economic uncertainty right now, some volatility is to be expected. But, if you zoom out, it’s the larger trend that really matters most. And overall, rates have been trending down for most of this year ( see graph below ): 

There’s been a lot of talk lately about how a government shutdown impacts the housing market. You might be wondering: Is it causing everything to grind to a halt? The short answer? No. The housing market doesn’t stop. It keeps moving. Homes are still being bought and sold, contracts are still being signed, and closings are still happening. The difference is that a few parts of the process may slow down a little, but overall, the market continues to function. Here’s What Typically Happens Whenever the government shuts down, some federal agencies temporarily close or scale back their operations. That can cause a few hiccups in real estate, especially when it comes to processing certain types of government loans and insurance requirements: “ Applicants for FHA, VA, or USDA loans—which account for about one-quarter of all mortgage applications—may encounter significant processing delays due to agency furloughs.” - Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality “By recent estimates, more than 2,500 mortgage originations per working day are at risk of delays during a shutdown . . . ” - Zillow Flood insurance approvals may also be paused. The National Flood Insurance Program can be temporarily affected , which delays closings in flood zones. Even with those challenges and delays, most transactions still go through. Buyers keep buying, sellers keep selling, and agents keep helping people move forward. The Housing Market Usually Bounces Back Fast And you can see that play out in this data. If you look back at the most recent government shutdown that began at the end of 2018 and lasted for 35 days, sales activity dipped very slightly during the closure but picked right back up once the government reopened.  Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows existing home sales slowed for about two months, and then rebounded quickly as delayed closings worked their way through the system when the government reopened (see graph below):