Expert Forecasts Point to Affordability Improving in 2026

January 17, 2026

Wondering what to expect from the housing market in 2026? You’re not the only one. For the past few years, affordability has been the biggest barrier standing between most people and their next move. And a lot of buyers and sellers have been holding their breath waiting for things to get better. The good news? It’s finally happening.


In 2025, affordability was the best it’s been in 3 years. And experts agree the momentum will keep going in 2026. And that’s based on their analysis of the key factors shaping the housing market in the year ahead: mortgage rates, inventory, and home prices.


Lower Mortgage Rates Are Already Here


Mortgage rates have already come down from their peak. By some counts, they dropped by almost a full percentage point over the course of the last year. And that’s a big deal, even if it doesn’t sound like it. But how low will they go? And should you wait for them to come down more? Here’s your answer. 


Forecasts suggest they’ll stay pretty much where they are now and hover in the low 6% range throughout 2026 (see graph below):

Where they go from here really depends on what happens with the economy, the job market, and any changes in monetary policy the Fed makes in the year ahead. The important thing is, they’re already lower than they were just one year ago and that’s ideal if you’re planning a 2026 move.


  • For buyers: A lower rate reduces monthly payments and increases buying power. And, that combo helps more people qualify for homes that previously felt just out of reach.
  • For sellers: It may be time to accept that rates in the 6s are the new normal. And if you need to move, it’s doable, especially with your equity.


Even More Options Are on the Way


In 2025, the number of homes for sale improved by about 15%. As inventory rose, buyers regained things they hadn’t had in years: options, time to consider those options, and negotiating leverage. That helped restore more balance to the housing market.


Not to mention, the inventory gains are a big piece of what’s helped price growth slow down – which in turn improves affordability.


While the inventory gains this year aren’t expected to be as steep, experts at Realtor.com say the supply of homes for sale should grow by another 8.9% this year.


  • For buyers: That means even more choice and more negotiating power.
  • For sellers: Pricing your house right will be essential to draw in buyers.


Home Price Growth Is Slowing to a More Sustainable Pace


With more homes for sale, there isn’t as much upward pressure on prices right now. And we’ve seen that shake out over the past year. Even so, the overwhelming majority of experts say, nationally, prices will continue rising in the year ahead – just at a slower pace. On average, they say prices will rise by 1.6% in 2026 (see graph below):

And that's reassuring if you've been fed content on social media saying prices are going to come crashing down. But here’s what you need to remember most about this. It’s going to vary a lot by area.


So, lean on a local agent for the latest on what’s happening where you are. Some markets will see prices rise more than this. Others may see prices come down slightly. It really all depends on conditions in your local market


But overall, prices will continue to rise at the national level. And that’s good for the market as a whole. As Realtor.com explains:


“ For homebuyers and sellers, the shift signals a more balanced market —one where price growth steadies, rate relief offers breathing room, and negotiating power tilts subtly toward buyers.”


  • For buyers: Expect more moderate price growth, not the sudden and intense spikes just a few short years ago. That gives you fewer surprises and more predictability, which makes budgeting a whole lot easier.
  • For sellers: This slower price growth restores balance without putting your equity at risk. And that’s a win. 


More Homes Will Sell 


All of this adds up to a better affordability equation in 2026. And that’s exactly why experts are saying we should see more homes sell (and more people buy) this year.

As Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow, says:


“Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026 .”


The bottom line is, more people are finally going to be able to make their move this year. So, the question is: will you be one of them? The market is giving you an opportunity you haven’t had in a while. Maybe it’s time to take advantage of it.


Bottom Line


Affordability won't change suddenly overnight in Granite Bay And Eldorado Hills, or anywhere in the Sacramento valley. However , with several key trends working together, it should slowly and steadily improve in the months ahead.


That’s exactly why, in 2026, you should see a market with more balance, more predictability, and more breathing room than you’ve had in years.


Want more information about the opportunities unlocking in our local market?



Let’s chat.

Credit Scoring Is Changing: 3 Things Homebuyers Should Know

November 7, 2026
Quick, what credit score do you need to buy a home ? If a number pops into your head, there's a pretty good chance it's wrong. And the right answer is getting harder to pin down, because the way credit scores are determined and delivered is changing - for the better. Here's what you need to know in today's changing credit climate. #1 Most People Are Guessing Fannie Mae has been tracking consumer perceptions about mortgage requirements since 2015 and found that consumers consistently overestimated the minimum credit score lenders required to qualify for a mortgage. As recently as 2023, the average guess was 652. In reality, the long-standing benchmark for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is lower, at 620, and today even that isn't a hard rule for every mortgage they back. Like the Fannie Mae research, a recent survey from Veterans United found consumers continue to overestimate what it takes to qualify for a home loan: 

The Home Insurance Move That Could Save You $440 a Year

November 3, 2026
When you’re planning a move , every monthly cost counts. That’s why it can be frustrating to see home insurance keep creeping up. According to Intercontinental Exchange, it now makes up 9.6% of the average monthly mortgage payment. But the latest numbers show some progress on that front – as the increases start to slow down. Here’s what you need to know and what you can do about it. Premiums Are Rising More Slowly Now A look at the past two years shows how much things have cooled down. In mid-2024, home insurance premiums rose 4.3% in a single quarter. By the second quarter of this year, that was down to 1.8%. That’s the smallest quarterly growth in almost 3 years – and that’s a good thing (see graph below):

Why More Buyers Are Turning To Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Today

October 31, 2026
When mortgage rates climb, buying a home can start to feel like trying to hit a moving target. Every jump in rates makes monthly payments bigger, and that pushes a lot of buyers to look for another way in. More and more of them are finding it in the adjustable-rate mortgage , or ARM. The ARM Option Here’s how an ARM differs from a more traditional mortgage. With a regular fixed-rate mortgage , your rate stays the same for your whole loan. But with an ARM , your rate is locked for the first few years, then it can move up or down based on market conditions . Some people don’t like that level of uncertainty – and that’s okay. But others are drawn to this option specifically because there’s usually a lower rate to start when you opt for an ARM. And in an affordability-strapped market, that’s going to gain popularity. Bankrate recently found that, in September, rates for ARM products were over a full percentage point lower than a regular fixed-rate loan. Depending on the ARM product, that can make a difference of $150-300 in the monthly payment on a median-priced home. And for some buyers, that’s enough to turn “not right now” into “let’s do this.” You can see it in the numbers. Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows that, in October, roughly 1 in 10 people applying for a mortgage chose an ARM (see graph below): 

Why Builders May Be More Motivated To Sell Than Homeowners

October 27, 2026
Here's something most homebuyers don't think about. When the housing market slows down , homeowners and builders don't always respond the same way. Think about it. If you're selling your house and aren't getting the offers you want, you could make the choice to take it off the market and stay put, and wait for things to improve. But builders ? They may be more motivated to stay the course. They've already invested money in building those houses. And every completed home that sits unsold means money tied up in a property, plus ongoing costs that can add up. That's why some builders may be more motivated to negotiate right now. And that could work in your favor. Fewer Buyers Are Making Moves. And Builders Are Feeling It. You’ve probably seen the headlines. According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), pending home sales – homes that have gone under contract but haven't closed yet – fell 7.3% in September and 11.3% compared to last year. Why? Higher mortgage rates are making it harder for buyers to make the numbers work. Now, that report tracks existing homes, not new construction. But we're seeing signs of the same slowdown on the builder side, too. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), builder confidence dropped to 29 in October , its lowest level since June 2012. Traffic from prospective buyers also dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade, excluding the start of the pandemic. 

The Biggest Credit Hurdle for Renters Who Want To Buy

October 24, 2026
What's the biggest payment you make every month? If you’re a renter , it's probably your rent. But did you know that you can pay your rent on time, every time, for years, and it may never show up in your credit history? It's pretty frustrating, especially if you'd like to buy a home someday and you’re trying to build your credit. The good thing is that’s changing right now. Here’s what you need to know and why it could open a door you thought was closed. The Problem for Would-Be Buyers You’re not the only one frustrated. According to Zillow, nearly a third of applicants (32.88%) get denied a mortgage due to insufficient credit history - not missed payments or too much debt. Just not enough credit history for a lender to say "yes." It’s the most common hurdle would-be buyers have. As Zillow explains: "Nearly one-third of mortgage applicants are denied a loan because of insufficient credit history , making it the most common reason for a denial .” 

Want a More Affordable Home? Don’t Overlook Condos.

October 21, 2026
When you picture buying your first home , chances are you’re imagining a traditional single-family house with its own yard, maybe a garage, and little extra room to grow. But with affordability still tight, getting everything on that list right away may come with a higher price tag than you’re comfortable with right now. So, if you’re running the numbers and buying a house like that feels like a stretch, there may be another way in. A condo. Because in a lot of markets, condos come with a significantly lower price tag. And that could make them a smart way to get your foot in the door. Condos Can Cost Less Than You Think According to a recent study by Zillow: “ Condos are the most commonly affordable home type in virtually every metro. At the starter level, the savings can be pretty significant. Nationally, starter condos average $197,468 — that’s about 6% less than the typical starter home. ” And depending on where you live, the difference can be much bigger. Zillow identified metro areas where typical starter condos are priced significantly below the estimated home price a median-income household could afford. Here are the top 10 according to that research ( see chart below ). In Houston, the gap is at its widest. There, a typical starter condo was valued at about $85,600 – 72% below the price considered affordable based on the area's median household income. 

Renovate or Relocate? What To Know Before You Decide To Age in Place

October 17, 2026
You've spent years making your house feel like home, celebrating milestones, making each room your own, and turning neighbors into friends. As you look ahead to the next chapter of your life, it's natural to wonder if this is still the place you want to spend it. Whether you're leaning toward staying in your house as you get older or moving to a 55+ community, the goal is the same: a home that fits the life you want, with more time for the people and things you love. So, here's what to consider before you decide. What It Can Take To Stay Put Wanting to stay in a house you love and are familiar with makes sense. But most houses need at least some updates to make aging in place easier. In fact, the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (JCHS) finds that fewer than 4% of homes have the basics, like single-floor living, no-step entries, and wide hallways and doorways (see graph below): 

Why Most People Are Still Glad They Bought a Home

October 13, 2026
With everything going on, it’s understandable if you’re wondering if you’d regret buying right now. Everyday expenses cost more. Mortgage rates are higher than you’d like. And when the economy feels uncertain, taking on a mortgage can feel like a much bigger leap. But here’s some perspective that may help… Most people who already made that leap would do it again. According to a recent survey from NerdWallet, the vast majority of recent buyers (74%) were glad they bought their current home. Only a very small 3% of people regret it: 

What Higher Mortgage Rates Mean for Home Sellers

October 10, 2026
Higher mortgage rates don't just affect buyers. They can change what it takes to sell your house, too. That's because today's buyers are paying close attention to affordability. And when rates rise, even a relatively small change can make a noticeable difference in their monthly payment. So, they're looking for ways to make the numbers work. And in some markets, new construction is giving them exactly that. If you're planning to sell , that doesn't mean you can't compete. But it does mean you need to understand what builders are doing to win over buyers – and what options you have, too. Builders Are Competing on the Monthly Payment New construction has something interesting going for it right now. While existing-home sales (homes that have previously been lived in, resale homes) continue to sell, the dated, or not updated ones tend to struggle under the weight of higher mortgage rates, new-home sales are holding up a bit better. Buyers in this market are very picky and don't over pay for a house that needs work. In a recent interview , Logan Mohtashami, Chief Economist at HousingWire explains new-home sales are at an 8-month high and are now running around 2019 levels . On the flip side, existing home sales are lagging behind and fall about 1 million home sales short of 2019 levels. One big reason builders have been able to navigate higher rates differently is incentives. According to Realtor.com , nearly 1 in 5 (18.8%) newly built homes come with some kind of buyer incentive advertised up front, here in Placer and Sacramento county I have seen 100% of the builders are offering some kind of incentives to the buyers of the standing inventory. 

Two Moves That Can Get You Into Your First Home Sooner

October 6, 2026
For a lot of first-time buyers, owning a home can feel perpetually a few years out of reach. Saving for a down payment takes time, and each year you spend renting can make owning feel further off. But buying your first home doesn’t have to happen to feel like a far away goal. Two choices you control can bring your first home years closer, even with affordability as tight as it is right now. How Long Buying Really Takes First, one quick definition. "Breaking even" is the point where owning has cost you about the same as renting would have over the same period. And after that point, owning starts to cost less than renting. Kara Ng, Senior Economist at Zillow, puts it this way: "Buyers should think about not just when they can afford to buy, but how long they'd need to stay before owning makes more financial sense than renting." So how long does reaching that point usually take? And what are the shortcuts? Let’s do the math. According to Zillow, it usually takes about 8.5 years to save for a 20% down payment, then roughly 6.2 more years before owning costs the same as renting. Together, that's just under 15 years. But that math relies on two assumptions: that you're buying a mid-priced home, and that you're putting 20% down. Change either one and your timeline gets shorter. Change both and it can shrink fast. It also varies widely by market, since local prices and rents are different depending on where you live. A Starter Home Can Get You There Twice as Fast A starter home usually means a home in the lower third of local prices. They’re often condos , townhomes, or single-family homes a little smaller or older than others in the area. Choosing one over a mid-priced home can cut your wait down by a lot. And while that might sound obvious, you may not realize just how much it shortens your timeline. Because if you’re buying a more affordable home, you don’t have to save up as much or as long. Zillow found that nationwide, a starter home takes half the time – about 7.2 years – to save for and come out ahead on, compared with renting (see graph below): 
Show More

Credit Scoring Is Changing: 3 Things Homebuyers Should Know

November 7, 2026
Quick, what credit score do you need to buy a home ? If a number pops into your head, there's a pretty good chance it's wrong. And the right answer is getting harder to pin down, because the way credit scores are determined and delivered is changing - for the better. Here's what you need to know in today's changing credit climate. #1 Most People Are Guessing Fannie Mae has been tracking consumer perceptions about mortgage requirements since 2015 and found that consumers consistently overestimated the minimum credit score lenders required to qualify for a mortgage. As recently as 2023, the average guess was 652. In reality, the long-standing benchmark for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is lower, at 620, and today even that isn't a hard rule for every mortgage they back. Like the Fannie Mae research, a recent survey from Veterans United found consumers continue to overestimate what it takes to qualify for a home loan: 

The Home Insurance Move That Could Save You $440 a Year

November 3, 2026
When you’re planning a move , every monthly cost counts. That’s why it can be frustrating to see home insurance keep creeping up. According to Intercontinental Exchange, it now makes up 9.6% of the average monthly mortgage payment. But the latest numbers show some progress on that front – as the increases start to slow down. Here’s what you need to know and what you can do about it. Premiums Are Rising More Slowly Now A look at the past two years shows how much things have cooled down. In mid-2024, home insurance premiums rose 4.3% in a single quarter. By the second quarter of this year, that was down to 1.8%. That’s the smallest quarterly growth in almost 3 years – and that’s a good thing (see graph below):

Why More Buyers Are Turning To Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Today

October 31, 2026
When mortgage rates climb, buying a home can start to feel like trying to hit a moving target. Every jump in rates makes monthly payments bigger, and that pushes a lot of buyers to look for another way in. More and more of them are finding it in the adjustable-rate mortgage , or ARM. The ARM Option Here’s how an ARM differs from a more traditional mortgage. With a regular fixed-rate mortgage , your rate stays the same for your whole loan. But with an ARM , your rate is locked for the first few years, then it can move up or down based on market conditions . Some people don’t like that level of uncertainty – and that’s okay. But others are drawn to this option specifically because there’s usually a lower rate to start when you opt for an ARM. And in an affordability-strapped market, that’s going to gain popularity. Bankrate recently found that, in September, rates for ARM products were over a full percentage point lower than a regular fixed-rate loan. Depending on the ARM product, that can make a difference of $150-300 in the monthly payment on a median-priced home. And for some buyers, that’s enough to turn “not right now” into “let’s do this.” You can see it in the numbers. Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows that, in October, roughly 1 in 10 people applying for a mortgage chose an ARM (see graph below): 

Why Builders May Be More Motivated To Sell Than Homeowners

October 27, 2026
Here's something most homebuyers don't think about. When the housing market slows down , homeowners and builders don't always respond the same way. Think about it. If you're selling your house and aren't getting the offers you want, you could make the choice to take it off the market and stay put, and wait for things to improve. But builders ? They may be more motivated to stay the course. They've already invested money in building those houses. And every completed home that sits unsold means money tied up in a property, plus ongoing costs that can add up. That's why some builders may be more motivated to negotiate right now. And that could work in your favor. Fewer Buyers Are Making Moves. And Builders Are Feeling It. You’ve probably seen the headlines. According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), pending home sales – homes that have gone under contract but haven't closed yet – fell 7.3% in September and 11.3% compared to last year. Why? Higher mortgage rates are making it harder for buyers to make the numbers work. Now, that report tracks existing homes, not new construction. But we're seeing signs of the same slowdown on the builder side, too. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), builder confidence dropped to 29 in October , its lowest level since June 2012. Traffic from prospective buyers also dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade, excluding the start of the pandemic. 

The Biggest Credit Hurdle for Renters Who Want To Buy

October 24, 2026
What's the biggest payment you make every month? If you’re a renter , it's probably your rent. But did you know that you can pay your rent on time, every time, for years, and it may never show up in your credit history? It's pretty frustrating, especially if you'd like to buy a home someday and you’re trying to build your credit. The good thing is that’s changing right now. Here’s what you need to know and why it could open a door you thought was closed. The Problem for Would-Be Buyers You’re not the only one frustrated. According to Zillow, nearly a third of applicants (32.88%) get denied a mortgage due to insufficient credit history - not missed payments or too much debt. Just not enough credit history for a lender to say "yes." It’s the most common hurdle would-be buyers have. As Zillow explains: "Nearly one-third of mortgage applicants are denied a loan because of insufficient credit history , making it the most common reason for a denial .” 

Want a More Affordable Home? Don’t Overlook Condos.

October 21, 2026
When you picture buying your first home , chances are you’re imagining a traditional single-family house with its own yard, maybe a garage, and little extra room to grow. But with affordability still tight, getting everything on that list right away may come with a higher price tag than you’re comfortable with right now. So, if you’re running the numbers and buying a house like that feels like a stretch, there may be another way in. A condo. Because in a lot of markets, condos come with a significantly lower price tag. And that could make them a smart way to get your foot in the door. Condos Can Cost Less Than You Think According to a recent study by Zillow: “ Condos are the most commonly affordable home type in virtually every metro. At the starter level, the savings can be pretty significant. Nationally, starter condos average $197,468 — that’s about 6% less than the typical starter home. ” And depending on where you live, the difference can be much bigger. Zillow identified metro areas where typical starter condos are priced significantly below the estimated home price a median-income household could afford. Here are the top 10 according to that research ( see chart below ). In Houston, the gap is at its widest. There, a typical starter condo was valued at about $85,600 – 72% below the price considered affordable based on the area's median household income. 

Renovate or Relocate? What To Know Before You Decide To Age in Place

October 17, 2026
You've spent years making your house feel like home, celebrating milestones, making each room your own, and turning neighbors into friends. As you look ahead to the next chapter of your life, it's natural to wonder if this is still the place you want to spend it. Whether you're leaning toward staying in your house as you get older or moving to a 55+ community, the goal is the same: a home that fits the life you want, with more time for the people and things you love. So, here's what to consider before you decide. What It Can Take To Stay Put Wanting to stay in a house you love and are familiar with makes sense. But most houses need at least some updates to make aging in place easier. In fact, the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (JCHS) finds that fewer than 4% of homes have the basics, like single-floor living, no-step entries, and wide hallways and doorways (see graph below): 

Why Most People Are Still Glad They Bought a Home

October 13, 2026
With everything going on, it’s understandable if you’re wondering if you’d regret buying right now. Everyday expenses cost more. Mortgage rates are higher than you’d like. And when the economy feels uncertain, taking on a mortgage can feel like a much bigger leap. But here’s some perspective that may help… Most people who already made that leap would do it again. According to a recent survey from NerdWallet, the vast majority of recent buyers (74%) were glad they bought their current home. Only a very small 3% of people regret it: 

What Higher Mortgage Rates Mean for Home Sellers

October 10, 2026
Higher mortgage rates don't just affect buyers. They can change what it takes to sell your house, too. That's because today's buyers are paying close attention to affordability. And when rates rise, even a relatively small change can make a noticeable difference in their monthly payment. So, they're looking for ways to make the numbers work. And in some markets, new construction is giving them exactly that. If you're planning to sell , that doesn't mean you can't compete. But it does mean you need to understand what builders are doing to win over buyers – and what options you have, too. Builders Are Competing on the Monthly Payment New construction has something interesting going for it right now. While existing-home sales (homes that have previously been lived in, resale homes) continue to sell, the dated, or not updated ones tend to struggle under the weight of higher mortgage rates, new-home sales are holding up a bit better. Buyers in this market are very picky and don't over pay for a house that needs work. In a recent interview , Logan Mohtashami, Chief Economist at HousingWire explains new-home sales are at an 8-month high and are now running around 2019 levels . On the flip side, existing home sales are lagging behind and fall about 1 million home sales short of 2019 levels. One big reason builders have been able to navigate higher rates differently is incentives. According to Realtor.com , nearly 1 in 5 (18.8%) newly built homes come with some kind of buyer incentive advertised up front, here in Placer and Sacramento county I have seen 100% of the builders are offering some kind of incentives to the buyers of the standing inventory. 

Two Moves That Can Get You Into Your First Home Sooner

October 6, 2026
For a lot of first-time buyers, owning a home can feel perpetually a few years out of reach. Saving for a down payment takes time, and each year you spend renting can make owning feel further off. But buying your first home doesn’t have to happen to feel like a far away goal. Two choices you control can bring your first home years closer, even with affordability as tight as it is right now. How Long Buying Really Takes First, one quick definition. "Breaking even" is the point where owning has cost you about the same as renting would have over the same period. And after that point, owning starts to cost less than renting. Kara Ng, Senior Economist at Zillow, puts it this way: "Buyers should think about not just when they can afford to buy, but how long they'd need to stay before owning makes more financial sense than renting." So how long does reaching that point usually take? And what are the shortcuts? Let’s do the math. According to Zillow, it usually takes about 8.5 years to save for a 20% down payment, then roughly 6.2 more years before owning costs the same as renting. Together, that's just under 15 years. But that math relies on two assumptions: that you're buying a mid-priced home, and that you're putting 20% down. Change either one and your timeline gets shorter. Change both and it can shrink fast. It also varies widely by market, since local prices and rents are different depending on where you live. A Starter Home Can Get You There Twice as Fast A starter home usually means a home in the lower third of local prices. They’re often condos , townhomes, or single-family homes a little smaller or older than others in the area. Choosing one over a mid-priced home can cut your wait down by a lot. And while that might sound obvious, you may not realize just how much it shortens your timeline. Because if you’re buying a more affordable home, you don’t have to save up as much or as long. Zillow found that nationwide, a starter home takes half the time – about 7.2 years – to save for and come out ahead on, compared with renting (see graph below): 
Show More