The 3 Things You Risk by Pricing Too High

If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But here’s the simple truth. The data doesn’t point to a crash. It points to slow, continued growth. And sure, it’s going to vary by local area. Some markets will see prices rise more than others. And some may even see small , short-term declines. But the big picture is: home prices are expected to rise nationally, not fall, over the next 5 years. The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts In the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, each quarter over 100 leading housing market experts weigh in on where they project home prices will go from here. And in the report that was just released, the experts agree prices are projected to climb nationally through at least 2029 ( see graph below ):

These days, you’re going to want to get your price right when you get ready to sell your house. Honestly, it’s more important than ever. Why? While you may want to list high just to see what happens, that’s a plan that can easily backfire, and it’s going to cost you in today’s market. And the risk isn’t just missing out on offers, it’s missing out on the move you needed to make in the first place. The Real Pitfall of Overpricing  Many homeowners remember what their neighbor’s house sold for a few years ago, and they want to chase that same sky-high number. The problem is, that was a different market. Today, there are more homes for sale . Buyers have more options to choose from. They don’t have to get into bidding wars where they offer way over asking just to compete. Now they can come in at, or even below, list price. And if you’re not open to that, they’ll move on. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains: “Buyers will have more leverage in many, but not all, markets. Sellers will need to adjust price expectations to reflect the transitioning market.” But here’s the good news. You still have one big advantage as a seller. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home values went up by a staggering 54% over the last 5 years. So, even if you compromise just a little bit on your sale price today, odds are you’ll still come out way ahead. The challenge? Most sellers aren’t thinking about it that way. They’re stuck on what a neighbor got months or years ago – and that’s a costly mistake. Overpricing Can Stall Your Whole Move Here’s what happens. A seller lists too high. Buyers stay away. No offers come in. The house sits. And suddenly, that seller is facing a tough decision. Do they cut the price? Stick it out? Or give up altogether? Unfortunately, a late price cut may not be enough. Buyers often see that as a red flag that something’s wrong with the house. That’s why some sellers are opting to just pull their listing off the market entirely. In a recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) over half of agents (54%) say there are more homes being taken off the market than usual.

There’s a trend taking hold in real estate right now: more buyers are choosing newly built homes. And it’s not just about getting the latest technology or modern floorplans. It’s because they may be able to get a better deal.  Builders are offering serious incentives today, and people are jumping on them. In fact, new home sales just hit their highest level in over two years (see graph below):

If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, now’s the time to lean in. It’s officially the best time to buy this year. According to Realtor.com, this October will have the most buyer-friendly conditions of any month in 2025: “By mid-October, buyers across much of the country may finally find the combination of inventory, pricing, and negotiating power they’ve been waiting for— a rare opportunity in a market that has been tight for most of the past decade .” So, if you’re ready and able to buy right now, shooting for this month means you should see: More homes to choose from Less competition from other buyers More time to browse Better home prices Sellers who are more willing to negotiate Just remember, every market is different. For most of the top 50 largest metros, that sweet spot falls in October. But the peak time to buy may be slightly earlier or later, depending on where you live. As Realtor.com explains: “While Oct. 12–18 is the national “Best Week,” timing can shift depending on the local markets. . .” Best Week To Buy for our area : Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA: October 12 – 18 What the Experts Are Saying And Realtor.com isn’t the only one saying you’ve got an opportunity if you move now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains: “ Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.” Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, puts it like this: “ Nationally, now is a good time to buy, if you can afford it . . . with falling mortgage rates and significantly more inventory, buyers have an upper hand in negotiations.” And NerdWallet says: “This fall just might be the best window for home buyers in the past five years .” How To Get Ready for this Golden Window To make sure you’re ready to jump information our special buying season, Give me a call. Let's get you set you with a local lender and get pre-approved and ready to buy. They’ll be able to give you more information on your market's peak time, why it’s good for you, and the steps you’ll need to take to get ready. Bottom Line If you're serious about buying, getting prepped for this October window is a smart play. Want help lining up your strategy? Let's have a quick conversation so you've got the information you need to be ready for this prime buying time. 

You want mortgage rates to fall – and they've started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go? Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here's why. The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield , which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates ( see graph below ):

Want to know something important you probably don’t have a professional check for you nearly as often as you should? Spoiler alert: it’s the value of your home. Because here’s the reality. Your house is likely the biggest financial asset you have. And if you’ve lived in it for a few years or more, chances are it’s been quietly building wealth for you in the background – even if you haven’t been keeping tabs on it. You might be surprised by just how much it’s grown, even as the market has shifted over the past few months. What Is Home Equity? That hidden wealth in your home is called equity . It’s the difference between what your house is worth today and what you still owe on your mortgage. Your equity grows over time as home values rise and as you make your monthly payments. Here’s an example to help you really understand how the math works. Let’s say your house is now worth $500,000, and you have $200,000 left to pay off on your loan. That means you have $300,000 in equity. And that’s right in line with what the typical homeowner has right now. According to Cotality, the average homeowner with a mortgage has about $302,000 in equity. Why You Probably Have More Than You Think Here are the two main reasons homeowners like you have near record amounts of equity right now: 1. Significant Home Price Growth. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices have jumped by nearly 54% nationwide over the last five years (see map below): 

For the past couple of years, it’s been tough for a lot of homebuyers to make the numbers work. Home prices shot up. Mortgage rates too. And a number of people hit pause because it just didn’t feel possible. Maybe you were one of them. But there’s some encouraging news. If you’ve been waiting for a better time to jump back in, affordability may finally be showing signs of improvement this fall. The latest data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment has been coming down, and is now about $290 lower than it was just a few months ago ( see graph below) :

Waiting for the perfect buyer to fall in love with your house? In today’s market, that’s usually not what’s holding things up. And here’s why. Let’s be real. Homes are taking a week longer to sell than they did a year ago. According to Realtor.com : “Homes are also taking longer to sell. The typical home spent 60 days on the market in August, seven days longer than last year and now above pre-pandemic norms for the second consecutive month. This was the 17th straight month of year-over-year increases in time on market.” Part of that is because there are more homes on the market. So, with more options for buyers to choose from, they aren’t getting snatched up quite as fast. But there’s another big reason: price. The Average List Price Isn’t Going Up – and That Matters Today, a lot of homeowners are overshooting their list price. They remember the big climb in home prices a few years ago, and they don’t realize how much has changed. One of the most important, but often overlooked, changes in today’s housing market is this: average list prices have held steady for the past few years. That’s a big shift from a typical market, where prices were rising steadily each year. And it’s significantly different than the 2021-2022 surge when sellers could set their price just about anywhere and still attract multiple offers over asking. But now? That trend has leveled off – and sellers who want to stay competitive need to take note ( see graph below ): 

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) meets this week, and expectations are high that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate. But does that mean mortgage rates will drop? Let’s clear up the confusion. The Fed Doesn’t Directly Set Mortgage Rates Right now, all eyes are on the Fed. Most economists expect they'll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their mid-September meeting to try to head off a potential recession. According to the CME FedWatch Tool , markets are already betting on it. There’s virtually a 100% chance of a September cut. And based on what we know now, there’s about a 92% chance it’ll be a small cut (25 basis points) and an 8% chance it will be a bigger cut (50 basis points):